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Fox News Power Rankings: Five themes emerge in the battle for the House gavel

Fox News Power Rankings: Five themes emerge in the battle for the House gavel

Republicans have more districts in their corner in the first Fox News Power Rankings House forecast, but overall, the race for a majority is a toss-up. Two dramatic years in the House haven’t changed voters’ top concerns Political junkies will tell you that it has been a chaotic couple of years in the House.  With speaker battles, a debt ceiling crisis, the sixth-ever expulsion of a House lawmaker and the first ever shrinking of the “Squad,” there has been plenty to talk about on television and social media. At the same time, Americans continue to hold congress in low regard, with only 16% saying they approved of its job in July. (It has been two decades since congress had an approval rating of over 50%). These might seem like vulnerabilities for the ruling party, but when it comes to their congressional ballot, Americans are putting drama and dissatisfaction aside. The top issues in the race continue to be the economy, immigration and abortion, and voters are locked in to their preferred party for each of them. FOX NEWS POWER RANKINGS: VOTERS’ APPETITE FOR TICKET-SPLITTING WILL DECIDE THE SENATE Because of that, you can expect similar electoral dynamics in the House as in the Senate. A win for former President Trump will help the GOP stay in power in the lower chamber, as we saw in 2016. A win for Vice President Kamala Harris will likely give the Democrats a win in the House too, as President Biden was able to deliver in 2020. In the meantime, the race to rule the House starts off as a toss-up. Five themes across dozens of competitive districts Every House seat is up for election every two years, but only a fraction are competitive. In this forecast, 16% of the 435 districts are firmly in play. There are 19 toss-up races, and with Republicans enjoying a razor-thin majority in the House today, the results in those districts alone will decide which party gets the gavel. Many of the highly competitive races share key features. Redistricting The redistricting process occurs at the beginning of each decade, but a mountain of litigation over racial or partisan gerrymandering issues has left some states redrawing boundaries as recently as May. The upshot is that several seats are likely to change hands early on election night. Alabama and Louisiana each have redrawn seats with higher Black voter populations after court rulings. Both seats are represented by vacating Republicans and are Democrats’ best flip opportunities of the night.  Meanwhile, a state Republican supermajority approved a more favorable map in North Carolina. Three seats currently represented by Democrats will now be open in November, and Republicans are favored in all of them. Redistricting will also affect a highly competitive race in New York. A district containing Syracuse that currently belongs to Rep. Brandon Williams will shift leftward this year, putting the first-term congressman in a much tougher fight to hold on for a second. New York’s 22nd district is rated Lean D. Candidate quality One of the reasons Republicans underperformed expectations in the midterms was candidate quality. In other words, the party fielded nominees who were poor matches for their district, had baggage, or were ineffective campaigners. This year, the party is working with a stronger bench. The most notable example is Alaska’s statewide House district. In 2022, moderate Democrat Mary Peltola pulled off a historic upset when she beat former Governor Sarah Palin in the final round of the state’s ranked choice ballot tabulation. This year, Republicans hope that either second-time candidate Nick Begich or Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom will retake the seat; both have been stronger campaigners. Peltola is well-liked in her state and has been an advocate on local issues, chiefly the state’s fishing industry. This seat is rated Lean D. Back on the mainland, Ohio’s 9th district has been in Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur’s hands since 1983. She has crafted a brand around her pro-agriculture and anti-free trade views. But with Ohio’s rightward drift, this is a very competitive seat. In the midterms, Republicans fielded a candidate who was in lock step with Trump but struggled to appeal to centrists. This time, state Rep. Derek Merrin will be on the ballot for the GOP, bringing conservative principles and a wealth of campaign experience along with him. This seat is a toss-up. Republicans still have candidate issues in some key races. Washington’s 3rd district will be a rematch between first-term Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, a Blue Dog Democrat who recently suggested that Biden resign from office, and Joe Kent, her Republican challenger. Kent, a veteran and former CIA officer, was mired in controversy in 2022. That will continue to be a liability, but Republicans are hopeful that he will run a more disciplined campaign this time. This race is also a toss-up. Trump helps down ballot Republicans, including in suburban districts Trump struggled in the suburbs when he last ran for president. According to the Fox News Voter Analysis, he lagged Biden by 10 points with all suburban voters and 19 points with suburban women, leaving him with critical deficits in the battleground states. House Republicans in city and suburban districts did not fare so poorly. Challengers like Nicole Malliotakis in New York’s 11th district, Young Kim and Michelle Steel in the California suburbs and Maria Elvira Salazar in Miami flipped Democratic districts. This all suggests that Trump is more helpful to House Republicans than the conventional wisdom might say. He brings out core “MAGA” voters who vote red down the ballot, while allowing candidates to make inroads with moderates and independents. The best example is in Nebraska’s 2nd district, containing Omaha and its surrounding suburbs. At the presidential level, this is a Lean D district (and unlike most, it gets an electoral vote in November). The area has a larger proportion of college-educated voters, who dislike Trump and show up to vote against him. However, in the House, the race is rated Lean R. That is thanks to Rep. Don Bacon, a

Cruz blasts ‘insufficient’ National Park Service response to pro-Hamas riots at DC’s Union Station

Cruz blasts ‘insufficient’ National Park Service response to pro-Hamas riots at DC’s Union Station

FIRST ON FOX: Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, is probing the National Park Service (NPS) over how the July 24 pro-Hamas protest in Washington, D.C., was allowed to happen. Despite advance notice and a large permit issued to the left-wing anti-Israel group ANSWER Coalition, NPS deployed only 29 officers, leaving them vastly outnumbered by the crowd. In contrast, Amtrak Police, which is responsible for security at Union Station, significantly increased their presence and successfully managed the area, Cruz said in a letter sent to NPS on Friday. Cruz’s letter further criticizes NPS for failing to coordinate with other agencies, underestimating the protest’s scale and for not requesting additional support. He’s also seeking detailed answers about NPS’s preparation, coordination efforts and future plans to prevent future pro-Hamas demonstrations in the nation’s capital. ANTI-ISRAEL AGITATORS STAGE MASSIVE PROTEST IN WASHINGTON, DC, AMID NETANYAHU’S US VISIT “This should have never been allowed to happen,” Cruz wrote in his letter, first obtained by Fox News Digital. “The National Park Service (NPS) had advance notice of the large anti-Israel protests, timed to coincide with [Israeli] Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s address to Congress, and ample time to prepare.” Additionally, Cruz is seeking information on the intelligence NPS had regarding the protest, including details about the ANSWER Coalition’s activities and the steps taken by NPS to prepare for the protest and potential rioting at Columbus Circle, including the number of officers deployed, any body-camera footage from U.S. Park Police officers who responded to the riot, and any NPS after-action reports or similar documents and information about how NPS coordinated with local agencies prior to the protest. ‘CHICKENS FOR KFC’: NETANYAHU RIPS CEASE-FIRE ACTIVISTS IN SPEECH TO CONGRESS AS TLAIB SILENTLY PROTESTS Cruz said NPS left its U.S. Park Police “hopelessly outnumbered.” “The insufficient resources deployed by NPS, despite advance notice of the massive protest and the propensity of pro-Hamas demonstrations to turn violent, was negligent,” Cruz wrote. “Even with every USPP officer in the D.C. area deployed, the many other demands on that force left far too few USPP officers available for a major protest that could turn violent, and the Park Police union is not aware of any effort to get additional officers.” On July 24, anti-Israel agitators descended on Washington, D.C., to protest Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s address to Congress. Several monuments and historical sites were defaced and damaged. They were seen lighting American flags on fire, scrawling graffiti outside Union Station and chanting “Allahu Akbar.” ANTI-ISRAEL AGITATORS BURN AMERICAN FLAGS, ACCUSE NETANYAHU OF BEING ‘WAR CRIMINAL’ AS HE ADDRESSES CONGRESS Agitators at Union Station, which is located near the U.S. Capitol, burned an American flag and vandalized a statue with the words “Hamas is coming.” They also removed American flags and replaced them with Palestinian flags instead. Netanyahu delivered an address to Congress last month amid his nation’s war against Hamas, which has raged since Oct. 7. Amid his remarks, Netanyahu tore into cease-fire demonstrations that have played out across the U.S. since the war began.  Fox News Digital has reached out to NPS for comment. Fox News Digital’s Emma Colton contributed to this report.

Trump-Musk interview: 5 biggest takeaways from the 2024 presidential election to the US border crisis

Trump-Musk interview: 5 biggest takeaways from the 2024 presidential election to the US border crisis

Former President Trump spent around two hours on Monday night talking with Elon Musk on X, covering topics including his assassination attempt, U.S. relations with foreign adversaries and the state of the 2024 presidential race.  Here are five of the biggest takeaways from that conversation:  Former President Trump announced during the interview that he is planning to hold another campaign event in Butler, Pennsylvania, the city where his assassination attempt unfolded in mid-July.  “By the way, we’re going back to Butler, and we’re going to go back in October. We’re all set up — the people are fantastic in Butler, it’s a great area,” Trump told Musk. “These are incredible people.”  HARRIS CAMPAIGN CRITICIZES TRUMP FOR SERVING ‘SELF-OBSESSED RICH GUYS’ AFTER INTERVIEW WITH ELON MUSK  “I think I’ll probably start by saying, ‘As I was saying prior to being so horribly interrupted,’” Trump then joked, previewing how he would pick up where he left off on July 13.  Trump told Musk that the “miracle” of his assassination attempt in Pennsylvania this summer was that he was looking in the “exact direction” of shooter Thomas Matthew Crooks when he opened fire.  “And so it hit me at an angle that was far less destructive than any other angle. So that was the miracle,” Trump said, recounting the path of the bullet that struck his ear. “That was — for those people that don’t believe in God, I think we got to all start thinking about that. You have to, you know, I’m a believer, now I’m more of a believer I think.”  “It was amazing that I happened to be turned just at that perfect angle,” Trump added.  Trump told Musk at one point during the interview that “We’re going to have the largest deportation in the history of this country” and “we have no choice.”  The remark came as the conversation was focusing on the challenges posed by illegal immigration at the U.S.-Mexico border.  “We’re already overwhelmed Elon, we are overwhelmed,” Trump said.  TRUMP CHATS WITH MUSK IN LENGTHY, OVERARCHING INTERVIEW AS HARRIS CONTINUES SNUBBING MEDIA  “And I saw an ad just before I got on the air… I saw an ad by Kamala saying how she is going to provide border security. Where has she been for three and a half years?” Trump said.  Trump called Joe Biden – the current President of the United States – the “worst president in history.”  Speaking about the events that led to Biden dropping his re-election bid, Trump said Vice President Harris is “incompetent” and “as bad as Biden.”  “Look she hasn’t done an interview since this whole scam started,” Trump said. “And say what you want, this was a coup. This was a coup of a President of the United States. He didn’t want to leave. And they said, ‘we can do it the nice way, or we can do it the hard way.’”  “Yeah, I mean they just took him out back behind the shed and basically shot him,” Musk responded.  Trump cited the wars in Gaza and Ukraine, inflation and the “Afghanistan mess” as some of his criticisms of Biden’s administration.  X MELTS DOWN AFTER TRUMP-MUSK’S INTERVIEW ‘SPACE’ IMMEDIATELY CRASHES  “Now, Biden is close to vegetable stage, in my opinion,” Trump added during a later portion of the interview.  Trump told Musk that one of his “first acts” that he would do in a second presidential term is to “close up the Department of Education.”  Trump said he would “move education back to the states where, states like Iowa, where states like Idaho, you know, not every state will do great because the states that basically aren’t doing good now, you look at Gavin Newsom, the governor of California, he, he’s terrible. He does a terrible job. So he’s not going to do great with education.  “But of the 50, I would bet that 35 would do great. And 15 of them, or, you know, 20 of them will be as good as Norway. You know, Norway is considered great,” Trump told Musk.  Trump says as it is right now, the U.S. spends “more per pupil than any other country in the world” despite being ranked further down on lists of countries with the best education systems. 

RFK Jr. disqualified from New York ballot, used ‘sham’ address for residency, judge rules

RFK Jr. disqualified from New York ballot, used ‘sham’ address for residency, judge rules

Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s longshot bid for president has become even more unlikely after a judge ruled on Monday that his name should not appear on New York’s ballot after he falsely claimed a residence in the state on nominating petitions, despite living in California. New York Justice Christina L. Ryba concluded in a 34-page decision that the rented bedroom Kennedy, 70, claimed as his residence in the state wasn’t a “bona fide and legitimate residence, but merely a ‘sham’ address that he assumed for the purpose of maintaining his voter registration” and furthering his political candidacy. Ryba wrote in the decision that Kennedy’s designation of 84 Croton Lake Road in Westchester County as his place of residence “was a false statement requiring invalidation of the petition.” JOE ROGAN DENIES ENDORSING RFK JR. FOR PRESIDENT, SAYS HE ONLY MEANT TO SAY HE LIKES HIM ‘AS A PERSON’ “Using a friend’s address for political and voting purposes, while barely stepping foot on the premises, does not equate to residency under the Election Law,” the judge wrote. “To hold otherwise would establish a dangerous precedent and open the door to the fraud and political mischief that the Election Law residency rules were designed to prevent.” If the judge’s decision is upheld, it would keep Kennedy off the ballot in New York but could also lead to challenges in other states where he used an address in New York City’s suburbs to gather signatures. On Friday, Kennedy told Fox News’ Neil Cavuto that he had enough signatures to appear on the ballot in all 50 states. The scion of the famed Democratic political dynasty vowed to appeal, dismissing the ruling as partisan. The lawsuit was backed by Clear Choice Action, a Democrat-aligned political action committee on behalf of several voters in the state. “The Democrats are showing contempt for democracy,” Kennedy said in a statement, noting the ruling judge is a Democrat. “They aren’t confident they can win at the ballot box, so they are trying to stop voters from having a choice. We will appeal and we will win.” “This case is an assault on New York voters who signed in record numbers to place me on their ballot,” Kennedy wrote on X.” The DNC has become a party that uses lawfare in place of the democratic election process.” Barbara Moss, who rents the room to Kennedy, testified that he pays her $500 a month but she acknowledged there is no written lease and that Kennedy’s first payment wasn’t made until after the New York Post published a story casting doubt on Kennedy’s claim that he lived at that address. JFK’S ASSASSINATION CUT SHORT MY UNCLE’S VISION BUT WE MUST REVIVE IT, NOT FORGET IT The judge wrote it was “highly improbable, if not preposterous” that Kennedy may return to that bedroom to reside with his wife, family members, multiple pets, and all of his personal belongings to be,” the judge wrote. Ryba said evidence submitted in trial showed Kennedy had a “long-standing pattern” of borrowing addresses from friends and relatives so he could maintain his voter registration in New York state while actually residing in California, where he has a home with his wife, actor Cheryl Hines. A survey conducted by Ipsos this week found Kennedy is polling around 5% among voters in seven swing states: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada. Clear Choice Action said the ruling shows Kennedy intentionally misled election officials and betrayed voters’ trust. CLICK TO GET THE FOX NEWS APP “The Kennedy team will undoubtedly file desperate lawsuit after desperate lawsuit in the coming days and weeks; they will fail, and it will not change the simple truth: he lied, and he’s being held accountable,” the organization said. The last substantive independent bid for president was launched in 1992 by populist Texas industrialist Ross Perot, whose strong showing led critics to claim his closer proximity ideologically to losing incumbent President George H.W. Bush led to former Arkansas Democratic Gov. Bill Clinton’s upset win. Segregationist former Alabama Democratic Gov. George Wallace, running as an American Independent in 1968, and Republican-turned-Progressive ex-President Theodore Roosevelt in 1912 round out the last trio of substantive third-party candidates in the modern era. Fox News’ Charles Creitz and the Associated Press contributed to this report. 

Kamala Harris’ college sorority launches its own PAC as part of ‘Divine Nine’

Kamala Harris’ college sorority launches its own PAC as part of ‘Divine Nine’

Vice President Kamala Harris’ college sorority is launching its own PAC in an effort to boost one of its most prominent alumni into the White House. Harris is a member of Alpha Kappa Alpha, one of the oldest and most prominent historically black sororities in the country. AKA is also counted among the “Divine Nine,” a group of the most prominent black sororities and fraternities that holds huge sway in the black community. Alpha Kappa Alpha Sorority PAC, Inc., or AKA 1908 PAC, will be able to accept donations of up to $5,000 from sorority members and their families. Harris has long courted the support of AKA and other Divine Nine member groups. She delivered a speech at AKA’s annual convention in July, and she invited the Divine Nine to the White House shortly after gaining office in 2021. It was the first time the group had met directly with a U.S. president or vice president. KAMALA HARRIS’ PAST ‘DAMAGING MOMENTS’ ON HER TEAM’S MIND AS SHE HAS YET TO SPEAK TO THE PRESS, REPORTER SAYS Together, the Divine Nine has some 2.5 million active members across the country. Harris has enjoyed a surge in support from voters of color in the weeks following President Biden’s withdrawal from the 2024 presidential race. TRUMP CAMP THANKS WH FOR CONFIRMING THERE’S ‘NO DAYLIGHT’ BETWEEN HARRIS, BIDEN: ‘KAMALA CREATED THIS MESS’ Polls show Harris quickly caught up to Trump from Biden’s trailing performance, with many surveys showing her with a slight lead. Many Democratic analysts say party members may be over-confident about Harris as a candidate, however. Longtime strategist David Axelrod warned earlier this month that Democrats are displaying a lot of “irrational exuberance” about her campaign. “She has a lot of momentum, but if you do look at the polling, this is still a really tight race,” he said. “This is going to be a hard fight for either side. It’s based on the numbers we’re seeing right now.” 22 DAYS: KAMALA HARRIS HAS NOT HELD A PRESS CONFERENCE SINCE EMERGING AS PRESUMPTIVE DEMOCRATIC NOMINEE “Look, I mean, there’s a lot of irrational exuberance on the Democratic side of the aisle right now, because there was despair for some period of time about what November was gonna look like,” he continued. “Now people feel like there’s a chance.” Axelrod nevertheless argued that Trump still holds an advantage over Harris despite close polling. “It’s absolutely Trump’s race to lose right now. He is ahead,” he said. “And he is ahead in most of the battleground states. They’re close, they can be won by either candidate.”