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Why Putin is desperate for a big election win

Why Putin is desperate for a big election win

For many, the outcome of the Russian presidential election, scheduled to take place between March 15 and 17, is already known. President Vladimir Putin is facing little competition from the other candidates on the ballot after the election commission barred any challenger who could have garnered some public support from running. Yekaterina Duntsova, a former TV journalist, who in November announced her intention to run, was disqualified shortly after submitting her application; her candidacy had attracted too much public attention and interest for the Kremlin’s liking. Boris Nadezhdin, a liberal politician, who had called for the end of the war in Ukraine, was also not allowed to run, after showing the potential to attract the anti-Putin vote. Putin clearly does not want his election victory to be called into question and would like to see a landslide win that would give him the mandate to continue his policies, including what he calls “the special military operation” in Ukraine. A landslide victory would “prove” Russian society fully supports his war and enable him to take unpopular measures, including announcing a second wave of mobilisation. Putin’s plan is likely to amass enough troops to launch a new major offensive, break through the Ukrainian defences, and take Kharkov, Odesa and perhaps even Kyiv. Then he hopes Donald Trump would come to power in the US and negotiate and sign a peace deal on Russian terms. The reason why the Kremlin is so desperate for a big win in the presidential election is because it realises the majority of the Russian population is not too enthusiastic about the war. Currently, all official pollsters in the country report in their surveys high support for the war (about 70 percent). But their method of polling involves the narrow question “Do you support the special military operation?” Given the passing of legislation criminalising criticism of the Russian military and the detention and imprisonment of many who have dared openly declare their opposition to the war, few respondents would be willing to say “no” and risk getting in trouble. The Kremlin knows that. Independent pollsters, like the Chronicles Project, take this fear into account and add more questions to detect public sentiment, such as “Do you support the end of the operation?” and “Do you support the top federal budget priority should be the army”. This approach reveals that the “consistent supporters of war” are just 17 percent of those polls. Among them are undoubtedly, civil servants and people employed by the military-industrial complex, which is now receiving large government orders and driving some of the country’s short-term economic growth. If you look at the Telegram channels of the leading “war correspondents” – pro-government bloggers who write about the war – the dominant theme in their messages and posts is not the victories of the Russian troops, the effectiveness of Russian weapons or even the constant criticism of the poor state of affairs in the Russian army, the corruption, and so on. Rather, it is their disdain for the perceived public indifference to the war. These bloggers constantly complain about ordinary Russians displaying little interest in developments on the battlefield and even sometimes hostility towards the participants in the “special operation”. Indeed, the majority of Russians – who may answer “yes” to a question on whether they support the war – generally try not to think about the conflict or get involved in politics at all. Many of them consider the war inevitable and feel they cannot do anything about it. This is, no doubt, a reflection of what psychologists call “learned helplessness” – the result of decades of living under oppressive regimes. This silent and passive obedience – a mode of survival – is very often mistaken for support for Putin’s regime and the war. At the same time, there is a large group, roughly 20 percent, who are openly against the war and Putin’s regime. These are people with democratic and anti-war convictions. In February and March 2022, they took to the streets to demonstrate their opposition to the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. About 20,000 people were detained across the country, which reflects the scope and scale of these demonstrations. The extent of anti-Putin sentiment was also made apparent by the unprecedented attendance of the farewell for opposition politician Alexey Navalny, who died in prison in February. Tens of thousands of people came to say goodbye and lay flowers on the grave of a man who had dedicated his entire political career to fighting Putin’s regime. By contrast, the funerals of prominent pro-war figures, such as Wagner mercenary company founder Yevgeny Prigozhin, who died in a plane crash in August, and Vladen Tatarsky, a well-known “war correspondent” assassinated in Saint Petersburg in April last year, did not draw such crowds. This group of opposition-minded citizens has now been called to challenge Putin at the polls. Members of the Russian opposition, including Navalny’s widow Yulia, have encouraged people to show up at the polling stations and either vote for any of the other candidates on the ballot or to spoil it. The idea is to shrink Putin’s expected victory of 80 or 90 percent to, say, 45-55 percent. The incumbent would still win but such a large protest vote would demonstrate to the Kremlin and the political elite that he does not really have the kind of legitimacy he claims. Is this a viable strategy? In principle, the inert majority tends to ignore elections. Those who do show up, will likely cast a vote for Putin not because they support everything he does, but because for them, he is a symbol of stability and the only hope that the situation will improve. It is still quite difficult for the apolitical majority to make a direct logical connection between the president, his policies and the deterioration of the situation in Russia. They tend to associate their standard and circumstances of living directly with local authorities, at most with the governors. Putin personally is always above the fray.

Illinois Republican congressional candidates fight for favor of Trump supporters

Illinois Republican congressional candidates fight for favor of Trump supporters

At a local restaurant meet-and-greet, Darren Bailey led his audience in prayer, then suggested reciting the Pledge of Allegiance before failing to find an American flag in the room. The stars and stripes were spotted on Brandon Baston’s T-shirt and Bailey summoned the 37-year-old Walmart employee to turn and face the audience. Say what you want about Bailey, he’s adaptable. The 57-year-old southern Illinois farmer was a rookie Republican state representative when he catapulted to statewide notoriety in 2020 by filing a lawsuit against Democratic Gov. J.B. Pritzker’s COVID-19 restrictions. He jumped to the Senate the following year and from there bested better-financed candidates to win the 2022 GOP nomination for governor. That earned him the cherished endorsement of former President Donald Trump before losing to Pritzker in a state where Democrats have a virtual lock on power. Now, he’s challenging a five-term Republican representative, and after talking up a repeat endorsement, he’s been forced to adapt again: Trump chose the incumbent, Rep. Mike Bost. Disappointed, Bailey now says Trump’s choice “didn’t move the needle much,” though his “grassroots movement” also trails Bost badly in the money race. ILLINOIS TO CUT STATE-FUNDED HEALTH CARE FOR ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS, GREEN CARD HOLDERS AFTER SOARING COSTS As it winds down to a March 19 primary showdown, the race could be seen as a measure of Trump’s clout. Bost is a popular incumbent, but he’s running in a time and place where disdain for government is white-hot. Establishment Republicans are angry their man has to face an intraparty challenge, which is the attitude Bailey argues needs to be dislodged. But it will be up to voters to decide whether adaptability and hard work are enough to overcome incumbency, tenure and an endorsement from the nation’s Republican leader. “Being a farmer, you have good years, you have bad years. When you have those bad years, you buckle down, and you work harder,” Bailey said. “We keep going because people need encouragement. They’re frustrated, they’re concerned. We bring hope and they know that they’re going to have somebody who’s going to be fighting for them.” Bost, a 64-year-old Murphysboro resident, is campaigning on experience. The Marine Corps veteran is chairman of the House Veterans Affairs Committee and sits on the committees for Agriculture, Transportation and Infrastructure. With tenure comes knowhow and relationships that help him help his district, he said. “I’m at the place where we can have the most benefit for the people in my district, whether it’s in constituent service or moving legislation or knowing and understanding the issues,” Bost said. “Right now, the United States and the world are facing some very large issues and we don’t need some person going in there on the first day for on-the-job training.” But Bost is still getting to know a large chunk of his constituency. Instead of occupying a cozy corner in southwestern Illinois, the current 12th District, redrawn after the 2020 Census, now encompasses much of the previously adjacent 15th District, what Monroe County Republican Central Committee Chairman Ed McLean calls the “Eastern Bloc.” In all, it is 34 counties making up the bottom one-third of the state. While Trump won the old 12th District with at least 55% of the vote in 2016 over Hillary Clinton and in 2020 against President Joe Biden, he twice took more than 70% of the tally in the former 15th. The issues are clear: Bucking any regulation on the right to possess firearms, fighting inflation, opposing abortion and locking down the U.S. southern border, an issue that’s exploded in Illinois because of the arrival of 36,000 migrants who have crossed the border and have been transported largely from Texas. It’s a race to win the hearts and minds of true Trump conservatives. In few places is that clearer than in Casey, a town of 3,300 in the northeast “Eastern Bloc” — and an hour’s drive from Bailey’s home in Xenia — which is known for its collection of “World’s Largest” things: wind chime, golf tee, rocking chair and more. “America should be ‘America first,’” said 71-year-old Casey resident Marlene Watts. “We have always been a nation where you can help the ones that are poor and needy. But right now, the (migrants) come before us. The American people are sort of last now.” Bailey flaunts ratings showing Bost’s conservative voting record on par with former Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney, now reviled by the right. Bost scoffs, maintaining that the group cherry-picks votes it reviews and reciting a litany of endorsements aside from Trump’s. In 2014, Bost flipped a district that had not elected a Republican in seven decades — the legendary Melvin Price reigned for 43 of those years. But Bost calls himself a “governing conservative,” explaining that he’s “not willing to burn down everything in Washington just so I can keep 100% of what I’m asking for.” The jab at Bailey references the challenger’s affiliations with firebrands such as GOP Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida, who campaigned for Bailey and is among a contingent that frowns on cooperating with Democrats in Congress. Will Stephens, who holds the nonpartisan post of Murphysboro mayor and has volunteered on Bost campaigns since he was a teenager, likens Bailey to former professional boxer Reggie Strickland, who over 19 years in the ring compiled a record of 66-276 but took on all comers. Stephens said Bailey will “go to Washington — he’s going to do a performance-artist fight and he’s not going to win any fights,” Stephens said. “Then he’s going to send you an email and ask you to send him some money for his campaign.” Bailey counters that he’s willing to compromise with Democrats when they abandon extreme positions such as an “open border” or what he considers public school moralizing. “When you have these radicals that want to hijack and destroy public education, when you have these radicals that want to destroy life, it makes it awful difficult to compromise with that,” Bailey said. “I’ve got a

Haitian migrant charged with rape of 15-year-old girl entered via controversial parole program: sources

Haitian migrant charged with rape of 15-year-old girl entered via controversial parole program: sources

A Haitian migrant now charged with rape of a 15-year-old girl at a local migrant hotel was allowed into the U.S. by a controversial parole program that allows up to 30,000 migrants a month to fly into the country, sources tell Fox News. Local authorities in Rockland, Massachusetts arrested 26-year-old Cory Alvarez, a Haitian national. Boston 25 News reported that he pleaded not guilty at his arraignment on Thursday on one count of aggravated rape of a child.  The outlet reported that police responded to a Comfort Inn, which is part of a program to house migrant families. Multiple sources tell Fox News that Alvarez came to the U.S. in June via the Cuban, Haitian, Nicaraguan and Venezuelan parole processes. MAYORKAS CALLS POLICY TO LET 30K MIGRANTS FLY IN EACH MONTH A ‘KEY ELEMENT’ OF BORDER PLAN AFTER LEGAL WIN The policy was first announced for Venezuelans in October 2022, which allowed a limited number to fly directly into the U.S. as long as they had not entered illegally, had a sponsor in the U.S. already and passed certain checks.  In January 2023, the administration announced that the program was expanding to include Haitians, Nicaraguans and Cubans and that the program would allow up to 30,000 people per month into the U.S. It allows for migrants to receive work permits and a two-year authorization to live in the U.S. and was announced alongside an expansion of Title 42 expulsions to include those nationalities. DHS WARNS HAITIAN ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS ARRIVING BY BOAT FACE ‘IMMEDIATE REPATRIATION’ The Department of Homeland Security recently said the process, which it describes as a “safe and orderly way to reach the United States” is a “key element” of the administration’s efforts to address high levels of migration throughout the Hemisphere. Republicans have accused the administration of abusing the parole process with the program, but a recent lawsuit from 20 GOP-led states was recently shot down in the courts. Fox News is told that Alvarez flew directly from Haiti to John F. Kennedy Airport in New York City, and was sponsored by someone in New Jersey. Fox News is also told that an Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) detainer has been lodged against Alvarez.  Meanwhile, there are concerns about a potential migrant wave coming from Haiti as violence escalates in the Caribbean country. Florida this week sent troops and aircraft to the coast in order to prevent illegal immigrants landing in boats. DHS has said it is monitoring the situation in Haiti, although it has stressed that migration flows remain low. It has also warned that any migrants who cross by boat are “subject to immediate repatriation pursuant to our longstanding policy and procedures.”

Centrist group No Labels sets up panel to select third-party presidential ticket

Centrist group No Labels sets up panel to select third-party presidential ticket

No Labels is taking another step toward forming a bipartisan presidential ticket in November’s general election. The centrist group announced the formation of a committee to vet candidates for the potential bipartisan ticket. “Today, No Labels is taking the next step toward providing it by announcing our process to choose the candidates for a unity ticket,” former Sen. Joe Lieberman, a No Labels founding co-chair, said in a statement Thursday. Lieberman, the 2000 Democratic vice presidential nominee who ran for the party’s 2004 presidential nomination before becoming an independent a couple of years later, will be part of a panel called the Country Over Party Committee, which will vet potential contenders. HOW NO LABELS IS MOVING TOWARDS LAUNCHING A THIRD-PARTY PRESIDENTIAL TICKET No Labels national co-chair Ben Chavis, a civil rights activist and former NAACP executive director and CEO, will also serve on the 12-member panel. “The committee will consider input from the No Labels community and serve as representatives in meeting with potential candidates,” former Dallas Mayor and No Labels national convention chair Mike Rawlings said in a video released by the group. NO LABELS CHARGES OPPONENTS ARE TRYING TO KEEP IT OFF THE BALLOT Rawlings said that to be considered for the national ticket, candidates must adhere to the group’s six core beliefs, including “that we care about this country more than demands of any political party.” And Rawlings added that contenders must also endorse “the No Labels commonsense policy booklet, which includes 30 ideas to address our nation’s most important challenges, ranging from immigration and border security to the budget, inflation, and growing threats from abroad.” Lieberman explained that “If we find two candidates that meet our high threshold, we will recommend that ticket to No Labels’ delegates for a nomination vote at a national nominating convention that will be held later this spring.” While the group didn’t set any timetable, Lieberman said Thursday in a CNN interview that a candidate could be announced as early as next Thursday. The announcement comes nearly a week after roughly 800 No Labels delegates who took part in a virtual meeting voted to give a thumbs up to fielding a presidential ticket. For over a year, No Labels has mulled a third-party ticket, as it pointed to poll after poll suggesting that many Americans were anything but enthused about a 2024 election rematch between President Biden and former President Donald Trump. And No Labels had long said that it would decide whether to launch a presidential ticket following Super Tuesday, when 16 states from coast to coast held nominating primaries and caucuses. The latest move by No Labels comes two days after Biden and Trump clinched the Democratic and Republican presidential nominations, becoming the two major parties’ 2024 presumptive nominees. The moves by No Labels also come after former two-term Republican Gov. Larry Hogan of Maryland, a former leader of the group who was considered a potential contender for the “unity” ticket, recently took his name out of contention as he announced a run this year for an open Senate seat in his home state. REMATCH: TRUMP, BIDEN, CLINCH GOP AND DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATIONS And moderate Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia, another former No Labels leader who is not seeking re-election this year and who flirted with a White House run, has also said he won’t launch a presidential bid. There was also plenty of speculation that former U.N. ambassador and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, who was the final 2024 GOP presidential nomination rival to Trump before she ended her White House run last week, would consider running on a No Labels ticket. No Labels had expressed interest in her earlier this year. But Haley repeatedly nixed joining a No Labels ticket, most recently last week in an interview on “FOX and Friends.” The No Labels spotlight now appears to be shining on former Republican Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan of Georgia, a former health care executive and minor league baseball player who served three terms in the Georgia House of Representatives before winning election as lieutenant governor in 2018. People familiar with the discussions confirmed to Fox News that No Labels “is talking to him,” adding that conversations are “moving fast” and “nothing’s set.” A source in Duncan’s political orbit said he hasn’t ruled anything out when it comes to a potential third-party presidential run this year. The news was first reported by The Wall Street Journal. Duncan grabbed national attention in the weeks after the 2020 election for speaking out against then-President Trump’s unfounded claims of “massive voter fraud” in Georgia, which was one of a half-dozen states where Biden narrowly edged Trump to win the White House. Duncan, along with Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp and Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, both Republicans, resisted Trump’s requests to overturn the election results in the Peach State. Duncan decided months later against seeking re-election in 2022 and instead launched “GOP 2.0,” an effort to try and move the Republican Party past Trump. No Labels said last week that it is already on the ballot in 16 states and currently working in 17 other states to obtain access.  There’s been a chorus of calls from Democrats warning that a No Labels ticket would pave a path to victory for Trump in November, but the group dismisses that criticism. “That’s not our goal here,” Lieberman told Fox News Digital late last year. “We’re not about electing either President Trump or President Biden.” Thursday’s announcement came a day after the resignation of No Labels co-chair Pat McCrory, a Republican and former North Carolina governor. McCrory, who hasn’t detailed his departure from the group, said in a statement to the Wall Street Journal that “I wish them [No Labels] the best.” Get the latest updates from the 2024 campaign trail, exclusive interviews and more at our Fox News Digital election hub.

Is­rael’s war on Gaza: List of key events, day 161

Is­rael’s war on Gaza: List of key events, day 161

At least 20 Palestinians have been killed and more than 150 injured in Gaza after Israel attacked a crowd of people waiting for humanitarian assistance. Here’s how things stand on Friday, March 15, 2024: Fighting and humanitarian crisis OpenArms, an aid ship bound for Gaza is close to the coast, according to MarineTraffic.com data. The aid ship departed from Cyprus on Tuesday, towing a barge containing about 200 tonnes of flour, rice and protein. Separately, at least 20 Palestinians were killed and more than 150 injured in northern Gaza City on Thursday, after Israel attacked a crowd of people waiting for humanitarian assistance. Mohammed Ghurab, director of emergency services at a hospital in northern Gaza, reportedly said on Thursday that people were wounded by gunshots at the Kuwait Roundabout in Gaza City. He told the AFP news agency that there were “direct shots by the occupation forces” on people waiting for a food truck. Meanwhile, according to a Reuters report, Hamas has submitted a new Gaza ceasefire proposal that includes the release of Israeli captives in exchange for freedom for Palestinian prisoners, 100 of whom are serving life sentences. In a post on X, the Israeli prime minister’s office said Hamas was “continuing to hold to unrealistic demands”, adding that a new update will be released on Saturday. The Prime Minister’s Office this evening: Hamas is continuing to hold to unrealistic demands. An update on the issue will be submitted to the War Cabinet and the Security Cabinet tomorrow. — Prime Minister of Israel (@IsraeliPM) March 15, 2024 Regional tensions President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi said on Friday that Egypt is pushing for a ceasefire in Gaza, to increase the amount of aid entering the Strip and to allow displaced people in the south of the enclave to move to the north. El-Sisi also warned against an Israeli incursion into the city of Rafah, where an estimated 1.5 million people are sheltering close to Gaza’s border with Egypt. US Senator Chuck Schumer called for new elections in Israel on Thursday, calling the “extremist” government and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “obstacles to peace”. Israeli ambassador Michael Herzog responded, saying that Israel’s “democratic ally” should not comment on the country’s “domestic political scene”. On Friday, UNRWA chief Philippe Lazzarini thanked Australia for becoming the latest country to restore funding to the UN agency for Palestinian refugees. Violence in the occupied West Bank Armed Israeli settlers carried out attacks in the occupied West Bank on Friday, setting a car on fire and raiding a school, according to local media reports. Israeli military vehicles entered the West Bank city of Tulkarem where three Palestinians were arrested, the Wafa news agency reported on Friday. Israeli forces also raided the nearby town of Bal’a, north of the city. Israeli forces have also arrested a Palestinian man during a raid on the town of Arraba, south of Jenin, according to local media. Adblock test (Why?)

Australia to unfreeze UNRWA funding as Israel attacks Gaza aid seekers

Australia to unfreeze UNRWA funding as Israel attacks Gaza aid seekers

Australia to restore $6m in funding to embattled UN agency for Palestinian refugees and pledges additional Gaza aid. Australia says it will restore funding to the United Nations agency for Palestinian refugees weeks after it lost millions of dollars in international support following allegations by Israel that some of its staff in the Gaza Strip were involved in the October 7 Hamas-led attacks. Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong said on Friday that the country was “unpausing” funding to the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA), refuting Israel’s accusations that 450 members of the agency’s staff had participated in the attacks in southern Israel that sparked the current war. Australia is lifting the pause on funding for UNRWA following steps to strengthen the integrity of UNRWA operations. pic.twitter.com/RD5FhRH7B2 — Senator Penny Wong (@SenatorWong) March 15, 2024 “The best available current advice from agencies and the Australian government lawyers is that UNRWA is not a terrorist organisation,” Wong told reporters in Adelaide while she announced a new aid package. As well as reinstating $6m in stalled funding for UNRWA, Australia has pledged an additional $2.6m to UNICEF, the UN’s agency for children, to provide urgent services in Gaza. It will also deploy a C-17 Globemaster plane to deliver defence force parachutes to help with the airdropping of humanitarian supplies to the enclave’s starving population. The deliveries have been criticised as inefficient and costly, and humanitarian groups have called on Israel to stop blocking aid deliveries by land. Friday’s decision to reinstate funding follows similar moves by Canada, Sweden and the European Union to resume support for the agency, which had seen about 15 countries freeze funding while the Israeli allegations were investigated. The freeze slashed UNRWA’s funds by an estimated $450m and left it on the brink of collapse. UNRWA chief Philippe Lazzarini thanked Australia for becoming the latest country to restore funding to the agency, which employs roughly 13,000 people in Gaza and is the main supplier of food, water and shelter there. “Your support is testament to your commitment to humanitarian principles & the plight of #PalestineRefugees during unprecedented crisis,” he wrote in a post on X. “I hope that other donors who have temporarily paused their contribution will make similar announcement & support the Agency to reverse the widespread hunger in #Gaza & to remain a life line for Palestine Refugees across the region.” Thank you #Australia for joining donor countries who have maintained/increased their funding and those who have recently announced their contribution to @UNRWA at this critical time in #Gaza and the region. Your support is testament to your commitment to humanitarian principles… — Philippe Lazzarini (@UNLazzarini) March 15, 2024 Israeli forces have attacked thousands of Palestinians waiting for food and other humanitarian supplies in Gaza. At least 21 people were killed in the latest attack on Thursday at Gaza City’s Kuwait Roundabout, a central hub for the arrival of aid trucks. At least five people were killed on Wednesday in an Israeli air strike on an UNRWA-run aid distribution centre and warehouse in Rafah in southern Gaza, where more than half of the enclave’s population of 2.3 million people have been displaced. Adblock test (Why?)