Midterm elections are as unpredictable as ever, as 2026 looms
“Everything changes everything” – Late Baltimore Orioles’ Hall of Fame Manager Earl Weaver Determining the political landscape for next year’s midterm elections may prove to be impossible. At least right now. Midterms have become increasingly challenging to decipher in recent cycles. A learned, Democratic Capitol Hill hand told me after the historic, 63-seat bloodletting by House Democrats in 2010 that the election was “un-modellable.” Midterms are usually a problem for the party of the president. NEW RNC CHAIR JOE GRUTERS VOWS TO ‘RIDE THE PRESIDENT ALL THE WAY TO VICTORY’ IN MIDTERMS That said, Democrats only lost a few House seats in 1962 – immediately following the Cuban Missile Crisis – which nearly brought the U.S. and Soviet Union to nuclear blows. Democrats lost a staggering 47 House seats in 1966 – the first and only midterm of late President Lyndon Johnson. But the electoral rapture barely dented the robust House majority. Democrats controlled 295 House seats before the 1966 midterms, 248 seats afterwards. Still a comfortable margin. Very few political observers expected Democrats to lose control of the House in the legendary 1994 midterms – mainly because the party held the House for 40 consecutive years. It was nearly unthinkable that Democrats could lose the House – simply because it had not happened in decades. Democrats and other political observers excoriated the brilliant Michael Barone when he was the lone commentator to forecast that a Republican flip of the House could be in the offing come the fall of 1994. Barone was right, as Republicans collected 54 seats. Republicans nearly lost control of the House in the 1998 midterms – after they impeached former President Clinton. Republicans then bested the historic norms in 2002 and held the House, boosted by pro-GOP sentiment following 9/11. Democrats managed to win back the House in 2018 – following a similar playbook they deployed in 2006 when they also captured control of the House. Democrats ran a number of moderate ex-military or “national security” Democrats – often in battleground districts. The relative unpopularity of President Donald Trump didn’t help Republicans, either. Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, R-Ga., boasted that Republicans may capture anywhere from 40-60 seats in the 2022 midterms. Republicans did win the House – but barely. CALIFORNIA REPUBLICANS SUE TO STOP NEWSOM, DEMOCRATS FROM PUSHING REDISTRICTING PLAN Which brings us to 2026. The party of the president historically loses around 25 seats in their first midterm. Since President Trump is only the second commander in chief to return to office after a hiatus (late President Grover Cleveland was the first), 2026 serves as a de facto “first midterm.” Trump and the Republicans lost 41 House seats in 2018 – his true first midterm. But calculating what to expect next year is nearly impossible. Republicans now hold a 219 to 212 majority in the House with four vacancies. Three of those seats are solidly Democratic – for now. So for the sake of argument, let’s say the breakdown is 220 to 215. Democrats must only flip a net of three seats to claim the majority. It’s not that easy. First off, we barely understand the 2026 playing field. In baseball, it’s 90 feet between the bases. 60 feet, 6 inches to the pitcher’s mound. Major League Baseball even standardized the size of the dirt infield a couple of years ago. As we head to the playoffs, we know the Milwaukee Brewers and Detroit Tigers are excellent. The New York Mets and New York Yankees should be really good., but they’ve stumbled. The Philadelphia Phillies are excellent – but just lost starting pitcher Zack Wheeler to a major injury. Who could surprise down the stretch? The Cincinnati Reds and Kansas City Royals are hardly out of it. Everyone understands the general variables of Major League Baseball as October nears. That is not the case with the 2026 midterms. Texas Republicans are now determined to redraw congressional districts to favor a GOP pickup of five seats. President Trump has endorsed similar efforts to tilt the field in favor of Republicans in GOP-strongholds like Missouri, Ohio and Indiana. California Gov. Gavin Newsom is threatening to upend the present maps in favor of Democrats in the Golden State. New York Democrats may try the same in the Empire State. So, we don’t even know the basics. How far from the plate to the mound in the 2026 midterms? How large is the strike zone? Five balls for a walk or the standard four? Twelve players in the field or nine? Redistricting could also hamper Republicans – forcing the party to suddenly defend a number of more competitive seats. Democrats could suddenly have more opportunities where none existed in 2024. But we aren’t sure. Maybe everything is status quo and Democrats only need to flip those three seats. We also don’t know how the relative unpopularity of President Trump may impact voters. He historically defies political gravity. Plus, the Democratic brand remains utterly toxic. Party registration is down for the Democrats – big time. POLITICAL ANALYST SAYS DEMOCRATS ARE ALREADY WORRIED ABOUT THE ‘BIG PROBLEM’ OF WINNING BACK VOTERS FOR 2028 That said, could Republicans reap the benefits of passing the hallmark of their legislative agenda – the One, Big, Beautiful Bill Act? Some conservatives doubt that the GOP has sufficiently sold the public on that legislation, especially during the August recess. Democrats are banking on the possibility that the legislation will backfire on the GOP in next year’s midterms. We also don’t know if President Trump not being on the ballot in 2026 is similar to the Republican midterm performance in 2018. It’s clear that not having Mr. Trump on the ballot in 2018 undercut the party at the polls. Republicans could also face a backlash from moderates and swing voters if they are dissatisfied with the performance of the president. We certainly saw that after voters tired of the polices of former Presidents George H.W. Bush in
Trump says he could send the National Guard to Maryland to address crime
President Donald Trump said Sunday that he would send the National Guard to Baltimore to “quickly clean up the crime” if Maryland Gov. Wes Moore says he needs help. Moore had earlier invited Trump to attend a public safety walk in the crime-ridden city in September, saying in an Aug. 21 letter that the event would provide an opportunity to “discuss strategies for effective public safety policy.” TRUMP VOWS TO MAKE DC ‘SAFER’ AND ‘BEAUTIFUL’ AS CAPITAL BATTLES CRIME AND HOMELESSNESS “As President, I would much prefer that he clean up this crime disaster before I go there for a walk,” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post. He accused Moore of having a poor record on crime “unless he fudges his figures on crime like many of the other Blue States are doing.” Trump added that he did not appreciate the tone of Moore’s invitation. CHICAGO MAYOR CALLS TRUMP’S NATIONAL GUARD DEPLOYMENT PLAN ‘UNCOORDINATED, UNCALLED-FOR AND UNSOUND’ “But if Wes Moore needs help, like Gavin Newscum did in L.A., I will send in the “troops,” which is being done in nearby DC, and quickly clean up the crime,” Trump wrote. He added that Baltimore ranks among the worst cities in the United States for crime and murder. Moore’s office renewed calls for Trump to visit Baltimore in a statement to Fox News Digital, adding that the city has recorded its lowest homicide level in fifty years. “This is a President who would rather attack his country’s largest cities from behind a desk than walk the streets with the people he represents. The President should join us in Baltimore because the blissful ignorance, tropes, and the 1980s scare tactics benefit no one. We need leaders who are there helping the people who are actually on the ground doing the work,” a spokesperson for Moore wrote. Earlier this month, the Trump administration rolled out a plan aimed at making Washington, D.C., “safer and more beautiful” as his administration doubles down on efforts to address crime and a growing homeless population in the nation’s capital. “I will take care of our cherished Capital, and we will make it, truly, GREAT AGAIN! Before the tents, squalor, filth, and crime, it was the most beautiful Capital in the world. It will soon be that again,” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post on Aug. 10. BLUE CITIES IN TRUMP’S CROSSHAIRS AFTER DC POLICE TAKEOVER Trump has repeatedly characterized Washington, D.C., as “one of the most dangerous cities anywhere in the world.” Officials have sought to curb crime by deploying hundreds of federal agents and National Guard troops to patrol the streets. On Friday, Trump said he was considering sending the National Guard to Chicago, calling the Windy City “a mess.” Trump said that his administration will “straighten that one out probably next,” adding that “it won’t even be tough.” The White House has not offered additional details of a potential deployment of troops to Chicago.
Moscow says Russia and Ukraine exchange 146 prisoners each
The exchange comes amid diplomatic efforts to solve the conflict and a Ukrainian drone attack on Russia overnight. Russia and Ukraine have each exchanged 146 prisoners of war (POWs) after mediation by the United Arab Emirates, the Russian Ministry of Defence says about the latest in a series of exchanges that has seen hundreds of POWs released this year. “On August 24, 146 Russian servicemen were returned from the territory controlled” by Kyiv, the ministry said on Telegram on Sunday. “In exchange, 146 prisoners of war of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were transferred” to Ukraine, it added. The ministry said the freed Russians were in Belarus receiving psychological and medical care. Large-scale prisoner exchanges were the only tangible result of three rounds of talks between Russian and Ukrainian delegations in Istanbul from May to July. They remain one of the few areas of cooperation between the two countries since Russia’s war on its neighbour began in 2022. Russia also said “eight citizens of the Russian Federation – residents of the Kursk region, illegally detained” by Kyiv, were also returned as part of the exchange. Kursk sits on the border with Ukraine. On Sunday, Russia also accused Ukraine of carrying out an overnight drone attack on a nuclear plant that caused a fire and damaged an auxiliary transformer. The attack forced a 50 percent reduction in the operating capacity at reactor number three at the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant, 60km (38 miles) from the Russia-Ukraine border, according to Russian officials, who added that several power and energy facilities were targeted in the strikes. Advertisement US revokes permission Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Washington has revoked permission for strikes in Russia with United States-manufactured weapons, confirming an earlier report in US media. He added that Kyiv has lately been using its own weapons to hit its enemy and does not consult on this with Washington. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov slammed Zelenskyy on Sunday for “obstinately insisting, setting conditions, demanding an immediate meeting at all costs” with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The developments came as Ukraine marked its Independence Day on Sunday, commemorating its 1991 declaration of independence from the Soviet Union. The efforts to settle the conflict have been ongoing since US President Donald Trump held talks in Alaska with Putin a week ago, but Trump has been unable thus far to coax Putin into a meeting with Zelenskyy. Trump said on Friday that in two weeks he should know whether progress is possible in his bid to end the Russia-Ukraine war as he again raised the prospect of imposing sanctions on Moscow. Adblock test (Why?)
Zelenskyy marks Ukraine Independence Day alongside Canada’s PM in Kyiv
NewsFeed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has delivered a defiant address against Russia during Ukraine’s Independence Day commemorations. They were attended by Canada’s prime minister who reiterated Western support for Kyiv. Published On 24 Aug 202524 Aug 2025 Adblock test (Why?)
Why protesters in the UK are being arrested under ‘terror’ laws
Why some protests in the UK are being criminalised, and what that means for free speech. In Britain, citizens protesting against the war in Gaza are being arrested and detained under “terrorism” laws. Activists and legal experts warn that “public safety” is being used as a pretext to silence dissent, curb free speech and criminalise legitimate political activism. Presenter: Stefanie Dekker Guests:Clare Hinchcliffe – mother of imprisoned activistLaura O’Brien – head of protest teamMatt Kennard – investigative journalist and author Adblock test (Why?)
Ganesh Chaturthi 2025: Will government, private schools be closed on 27 August? Check state-wise list
To get the latest information on holidays and schedules, families should check official announcements from state education departments, school boards and school calendars.
Delhi govt notifies legal framework for delivery of court summons, warrants; Will now be sent through…, know what BNSS rules say
The Delhi government has notified new rules regarding the delivery of court summons and warrants. According to the Delhi BNSS (Service of Summons and Warrants) Rules, 2025, the delivery of court summons and warrants will now be received electronically.
Three Targets, One Shot: India’s new super defence system stuns the world
Defence Minister Rajnath Singh’s congratulatory message to the Defence Research & Development Organisation (DRDO) captured the significance perfectly. This wasn’t just about launching missiles; it was about proving that India can build a complete, multi-layered defence shield using its own expertise
Ahead of Bihar elections, Rahul Gandhi and Tejashwi Yadav ride bullet, meet locals in Purnia, Tej Pratap says, ‘drama…’, watch video
Ahead of Bihar elections 2025, Congress leader and Leader of Opposition Rahul Gandhi and Rashtriya Janata Sal (RJD) leader Tejashwi Yadav were seen riding a Bullet motorcycle during their ‘Voter Adhikar Yatra’ in Bihar’s Purnia. What did BJP leader’s said?
Weather Alert: IMD predicts heavy rain in J-K, Mumbai, Gurgaon; Possible flooding and waterlogging, check state-wise forecast
As heavy rain wreaks havoc in the northernmost union territory of Jammu-Kashmir, the IMD issued an orange alert for all the districts. The department has issued heavy rains forecast for Gurgaon, Mumbai and flood situation for some parts of UP and Bihar.