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Inside the US military playbook to cripple Iran if nuclear talks collapse

Inside the US military playbook to cripple Iran if nuclear talks collapse

If negotiations with Iran collapse, the U.S. likely is to move quickly to degrade Tehran’s military capabilities — a campaign analysts say would begin with missile systems, naval assets and command networks before escalating to more controversial targets. Negotiators are still working toward what officials describe as a preliminary framework agreement — effectively a one-page starting point for broader talks centered on Iran’s nuclear program and potential sanctions relief. But deep mistrust on both sides has left the process fragile, raising the stakes if diplomacy fails.  “We’re not starting at zero,” retired Army Col. Seth Krummrich, a former Joint Staff planner and current Vice President at Global Guardian, told Fox News Digital. “We’re both starting at minus 1,000 because neither side trusts each other at all. This is going to be a pretty hard process going forward.”  That tension was on display Thursday, when a senior U.S. official confirmed American forces struck Iran’s Qeshm port and Bandar Abbas — key locations near the Strait of Hormuz — while insisting the operation did not mark a restart of the war or the end of the ceasefire. The strike on one of Iran’s oil ports came two days after Iran launched 15 ballistic and cruise missiles at the UAE’s Fujairah Port, drawing anger from Gulf allies. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine said earlier this week the attack did not rise to the level of breaking the ceasefire, describing it as a low-level strike. President Donald Trump repeatedly has warned that if negotiations collapse, the U.S. could resume bombing Iran — even signaling before the recent ceasefire was implemented that Washington could target the country’s energy infrastructure and key economic assets. But any escalation would likely unfold in phases, beginning with efforts to dismantle Iran’s ability to project force across the region before expanding to more controversial targets. If talks break down, any renewed conflict would likely become a “contest for escalation control,” where Iran seeks to impose costs without provoking regime-threatening retaliation while the U.S. works to strip away Tehran’s remaining leverage, according to retired Air Force Lt. Gen. David Deptula. “The capabilities that would come into focus are the ones Iran uses to generate coercive leverage: ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, air defense systems, maritime strike assets, command-and-control networks, IRGC infrastructure, proxy support channels, and nuclear-related facilities,” he said, referring to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps.  “The military objective would be less about punishment and more about denying Iran the tools it uses to escalate,” he said.  “President Trump has all the cards, and he wisely keeps all options on the table to ensure that Iran can never possess a nuclear weapon,” White House spokesperson Olivia Wales told Fox News Digital. The Pentagon could not immediately be reached for comment.  One early focus could be Iran’s fleet of fast attack boats in the Strait of Hormuz — a central component of Tehran’s ability to threaten global shipping in one of the world’s most critical energy corridors. RP Newman, a military and terrorism analyst and Marine Corp veteran, said leaving much of that fleet intact during earlier strikes was a mistake. IRAN’S REMAINING WEAPONS: HOW TEHRAN CAN STILL DISRUPT THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ “We’ve blown up six of them,” he said. “They’ve got about 400 left.”  The small, fast-moving boats are a key part of Iran’s asymmetric maritime strategy, capable of harassing commercial tankers and U.S. naval forces — and could quickly become a priority target in any renewed campaign. Much of Iran’s core military structure also remains intact. INSIDE IRAN’S MILITARY: MISSILES, MILITIAS AND A FORCE BUILT FOR SURVIVAL Newman said “we’ve only killed less than one percent of IRGC troops,” leaving a large portion of the force still capable of carrying out operations. He estimated the group “numbers between 150 and 190,000.” But targeting the IRGC is far more complex than eliminating senior leadership. “They’re not just a group of leaders at the top that you can kill away,” Krummrich said. “Over 47 years it’s percolated down to every level.” Retired Rear Adm. Mark Montgomery, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies policy institute, said Washington may continue tightening economic pressure before broadening military action, arguing the U.S. should “squeeze them for at least another three to six weeks” before considering more aggressive escalation. “You could have blown Kharg Island back to smithereens,” Krummrich said, referring to Iran’s primary oil export terminal in the Persian Gulf. “But what the planner said was, no — what we can do is a maritime blockade. It will have the same effect.” Iran has continued moving crude through covert shipping networks and ship-to-ship transfers, with tanker trackers reporting millions of barrels still reaching markets in recent weeks. A CIA analysis found Iran may be able to sustain those pressures for another three to four months before facing more severe economic strain, according to a report by The Washington Post. The question is how far a U.S. campaign could expand if initial pressure fails to force concessions. Trump has signaled a willingness to go further, warning before the ceasefire that the U.S. could “completely obliterate” Iran’s electric generating plants, oil infrastructure and key export hubs such as Kharg Island if a deal is not reached. “You don’t do that at first,” Montgomery said, describing strikes on dual-use infrastructure as a conditional step dependent on Iran’s response. Targeting dual-use infrastructure presents significant legal and operational challenges. “I’ve got 500 people standing on my target. You can’t hit that,” Newman said. Such decisions carry political and legal risks, particularly given the likelihood of international scrutiny. Broader infrastructure strikes also could create long-term instability if they push Iran toward internal collapse. “In the short term, it might help. But in the long term, we’re all going to have to deal with it,” Krummrich said. “Once you pull that lever, you’re basically pushing Iran closer to the edge of the abyss.” A collapse of state authority could create a failed-state

California abortion pill suppliers plot workarounds ahead of Supreme Court mifepristone decision

California abortion pill suppliers plot workarounds ahead of Supreme Court mifepristone decision

California-based abortion pill suppliers are reportedly preparing backup plans in case the Supreme Court restricts access to mifepristone, as the justices consider whether to limit mailing of the controversial drug. The Supreme Court has not set a timeline for a final decision in Louisiana v. FDA, but it faces a deadline of May 11, when its temporary pause on a lower-court ruling is set to expire unless the justices act. That ruling from the Fifth Circuit would roll back more recent FDA changes and reinstate older requirements that mifepristone be dispensed in person, effectively blocking telehealth prescriptions and mail distribution of the drug nationwide. Justice Samuel Alito issued the temporary administrative stay blocking that ruling from taking effect while the Supreme Court considers next steps. Mifepristone is now used in nearly two-thirds of all U.S. abortions, and with the legal future of sending it by mail uncertain, California suppliers are already pivoting. ABORTION PILL FIGHT HEADS TO SUPREME COURT AS MANUFACTURER WARNS OF ‘CHAOS’ AFTER RULING Supply chains in the Golden State are “ready to switch in a day” to alternative abortion drugs, Dr. Michele Gomez, co-founder of the MYA Network, a group seeking to “normalize abortion care,” told the Los Angeles Times. “It’s not going away, and it’s not going to slow down,” she said of abortion. At the center of the supply chain pivot is misoprostol, which is also used in concert with mifepristone to form the cocktail used in the majority of U.S. abortions. But some health officials assess that using misoprostol alone is less effective and comes with a higher risk of side effects. “Mifepristone with misoprostol is more effective than misoprostol used alone, and is associated with fewer side-effects,” according to the World Health Organization. HAWLEY LAUNCHES INVESTIGATION INTO ABORTION DRUG MANUFACTURERS OVER ‘GRAVE RISKS’ TO WOMEN Despite the elevated risk factors, suppliers are ready to ship the backup drug. “We heard about this on Friday and organizations that mail pills were mailing misoprostol on Saturday,” Gomez told the Times. “They already knew what to do.” On May 1, the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals sided with Louisiana in ruling that the FDA overstepped its authority by allowing abortion pills to be sent by mail from states where they are legal to states where they are not. Alito issued a temporary stay on that ruling, but that freeze expires May 11. Fox News Digital contacted the MYA Network and the FDA for comment but did not immediately receive a response.

California professor accused of killing pro-Israel protester will ‘likely’ avoid lengthy prison sentence

California professor accused of killing pro-Israel protester will ‘likely’ avoid lengthy prison sentence

The Jewish community is outraged after a California district attorney’s office signaled that a community college professor could escape a lengthy prison sentence after he struck an elderly pro-Israel protester with a megaphone, which led to him falling backwards onto the ground and later dying at the hospital from blunt force trauma, according to the medical examiner. Loay Abdel Fattah Alnaji, 53, an anti-Israel community college professor, was initially ordered to stand trial after hitting a pro-Israel protester, Paul Kessler, 69, in the head with a megaphone, who was standing across the street from him during dueling pro-Israel, pro-Palestinian protests in Thousand Oaks, located in Ventura County, California, in 2023. Kessler fell backwards to the ground after being struck by Alnaji striking his head and sending him to the hospital before passing away shortly thereafter from blunt force trauma, according to the medical examiner. The incident took place against the backdrop of the Israel-Hamas war tensions and concerns about antisemitism rising in the United States and more broadly. Alnaji was initially facing up to four years in prison for the matter as he fought the charges against him, but on Tuesday he reversed course and the court “indicated that it is likely to place Alnaji on formal probation with up to 365 days in jail,” according to the Ventura County District Attorney’s Office, which said it was displeased with the move. GERMAN OFFICIALS WARN ISLAMIST, FAR-LEFT RHETORIC DRIVING SPIKE IN ANTISEMITIC ATTACKS Ventura County Superior Court Judge Derek Malan, who offered Alnaji probation if he changed his plea, according to the Ventura County Star, reportedly likened the altercation to if “two old guys had a dispute and an accident happened,” Defense attorney Ron Bamieh said, after noting the offer came after multiple meetings between him and the judge. A defense source familiar with the case said that the district attorney’s office was also involved in these talks, despite public statements indicating they were unhappy with the outcome. The defense source said the district attorney’s office had to take a harsher stance for political reasons. “Alnaji should be sentenced to prison for his violent behavior, and our office strongly objects to any lesser sentence,” said District Attorney Erik Nasarenko. “While no amount of punishment will ever fully account for the Kessler family loss, a prison commitment underscores the severity of this crime and will deter others from committing similar acts of violence.” A prosecutor also said Kessler’s family opposed the sentence and sought the maximum term. ANTISEMITIC ATTACKER FACED 30-YEAR SENTENCE, GETS LESS THAN 1½ YEARS IN PLEA DEAL However, the defense source said that prior to the plea this week, the victim’s family wanted the case over quickly and quietly, without a trial, and did not have a strong opinion about sentencing. The source also contested claims that anyone had actually seen the full incident occur and insisted there were numerous contradictions in the eyewitness accounts provided that alleged Alnaji was the aggressor. “Mr. Alnaji made a thoughtful decision today, one guided by his family’s well-being and a deep concern for community peace. The tragedy that befell Mr. Kessler, compounded by the geopolitical tensions surrounding Israel and Gaza, led Mr. Alnaji to reconsider pursuing a full trial,” Bamieh said in a statement. “The evidence regarding Mr. Kessler’s aggressive conduct, his history of advocating violence and antagonistic tactics at pro-Palestinian rallies, and most critically, his brain stem condition—all of these facts would likely have shifted the outcome of a trial.” The defense has argued that a pre-existing brain injury is actually what caused Kessler’s death, not blunt force trauma as was determined by the medical examiner. ANTI-ISRAEL AGITATORS CLASH WITH NYPD OFFICERS NEAR SYNAGOGUE “For those who have characterized Mr. Alnaji as a violent man who intentionally struck a helpless victim, I simply say: they are either uninformed about the facts of this case, or they are pursuing an agenda unrelated to justice. The record tells a different story,” Bamieh concluded. Jonathan Oswaks, a friend of Kessler’s who was at the rally with him when the incident took place, told the Jewish Journal that the sentencing news was “deeply frustrating.” “I’m not a lawyer, but the way this was handled raises serious questions for me. It sends a troubling message about accountability,” he told the Jewish Journal in an interview. Oswaks recounted moments from the event in his interview with the outlet, noting how the pro-Palestinian protesters vastly outnumbered them that day. He said after the pair had split up, people began approaching him and stood inches from his face yelling into his ear and using a megaphone. “When I tell you I had never experienced that level of hate in my life, I hadn’t,” he said. “I told them to get out of my space. They backed off briefly, then started again. I made it clear they needed to stay away, and eventually they did.” After news of the deal came down, the Anti-Defamation League expressed disfavor with the likely sentencing outcome, arguing it “emboldens others to act in anger against the Jewish community.” Rabbi Noah Farkas, president and chief executive of the Jewish Federation of Los Angeles, said that “while we would have liked a harsher sentence,” he welcomed “the admission of guilt for this heinous crime,” according to the L.A. Times. “Our hope is that today’s news helps bring closure to his family and gives our community the ability to demonstrate safely,” Farkas added. Alnaji’s sentencing is scheduled for June 25, and he remains at home after posting $50,000 bail.

LGBTQ ‘lavender graduations’ set to take place at major Christian colleges, including one with a drag show

LGBTQ ‘lavender graduations’ set to take place at major Christian colleges, including one with a drag show

Some of the country’s most prominent Catholic colleges and universities are holding separate LGBTQ-affirming graduation ceremonies this spring, including one that also plans to include a drag performance. At least 20 colleges or universities associated with the Catholic Church have held, or plan to hold, these “lavender graduation” ceremonies and celebrations, which are done separate from the main commencement ceremony and are intended to “honor and celebrate the achievements of our LGBTQ+ graduates,” according to a Fox News Digital review of university websites and social media posts. The term “lavender” has been used to describe LGBTQ+ affiliations amongst the gay community for decades, but the phrase has also carried a loaded meaning in Catholic circles, where critics have used it in phrases like “lavender mafia” to refer to alleged homosexual networks within Church institutions. US CATHOLIC BISHOPS VOTE TO OFFICIALLY PROHIBIT GENDER TRANSITION TREATMENT AT CATHOLIC HOSPITALS The schools that have held, or plan to hold these graduation events, include Georgetown, Gonzaga, the University of San Francisco, Boston College, College of the Holy Cross, Fordham, Fairfield University, Marquette, Xavier, Seattle University, Saint Louis University, Loyola Marymount, Santa Clara University, St. John’s, Albertus Magnus College, St. Mary’s College of California, Regis University, Siena Heights University, St. Thomas University and Our Lady of the Lake University. The ceremonies sparked criticism from Catholic watchdog the Cardinal Newman Society, an education advocacy group focused on ensuring Catholic schools uphold traditional church teachings. The society, which first highlighted several of the “lavender” ceremonies taking place this year, argues that the events promote an ideology at odds with the church’s teaching. One of the schools holding a separate LGBTQ+ graduation, Seattle University, indicates on its website that their “Lavender Celebration” will even include “a special performance” from “Sativa the Drag Queen,” who, later this month, is headlining an event called “DICK’S DELUXE DRAG EXTRAVAGANZA.” FBI TRACKS DOWN CENTURIES-OLD CHRISTIAN ARTIFACT IN UNEXPECTED PLACE: ‘INCREDIBLY EXCITING’ At the University of San Francisco, the school’s website indicates it plans to hold a “Queer Prom” directly after their “Lavender Commencement.” Other schools plan to give special honors, host various keynote speakers and provide students with unique cords or stoles they can wear with their cap and gown. Some events included food, drinks and other activities as well. “Although intended as a compassionate gesture to students, the ceremonies reinforce harmful ideologies about sexuality and gender that contradict Catholic teaching,” the Cardinal Newman Society said in a news release about the graduation ceremonies. “They potentially lead students into sinful activity and undermine a Catholic college’s claim to teach the truths of the Catholic faith,” the Catholic education group continued. “The Church is clear in its teaching that sexual attraction to persons of the same sex is not itself a sin, but such attractions are ‘objectively disordered.’” Several of the same Catholic universities hosting LGBTQ-focused “lavender” graduation events also advertise separate cultural or identity-based commencement celebrations for non-White students, according to university event pages.