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Prediction markets point to Talarico-Paxton showdown in Texas Senate race

March 2, 2026

Traders on prediction market platform Kalshi are signaling growing confidence that Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democratic state Rep. James Talarico are on track to secure their parties’ Senate nominations. The Texas primary election is scheduled for Tuesday, with voting opening in the morning and results expected later that night or early Wednesday. Kalshi’s market data shows traders assigning Talarico a 75% probability of securing the Democratic...

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