LIVE: Bosnia vs Italy – World Cup 2026 qualifying final

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Cuba crisis explained: Who holds power, and could Diaz-Canel be replaced?

Cuba is facing one of its worst crises in decades, as the Caribbean island contends with nationwide blackouts, fuel shortages and growing political uncertainty. The crisis comes as the United States increases pressure on the communist government in Havana. Recommended Stories list of 3 itemsend of list As recently as Friday, US President Donald Trump hinted that he might attack Cuba, following military operations in Venezuela and Iran. “I built this great military. I said, ‘You’ll never have to use it.’ But sometimes you have to use it. And Cuba is next,” he said. Trump’s threats have raised questions about the future of Cuba’s leadership and whether political change could be on the horizon. Here is what to know about the US campaign against Cuba’s government and the powerful figures who lead Havana: What is happening in Cuba? Nearly every aspect of Cuban society is under strain amid a de facto US oil blockade. The island relies on imported oil to generate electricity and run public transport. But fuel shipments have largely stopped since January. On January 11, Trump announced that no more oil or funding would come from Cuba’s close ally Venezuela, following a US attack on that country. Then, on January 29, he issued an executive order threatening tariffs against any country that supplies Cuba with fuel. Since then, only one tanker has reached the island: On Tuesday, a Russian vessel carrying 730,000 barrels of oil arrived in Havana’s harbour. But it is unclear how far one ship will go in addressing the island’s oil crisis. The depletion of the island’s fuel supply has pushed the nation’s already fragile infrastructure past its breaking point. Advertisement In March alone, Cuba faced two island-wide blackouts, as well as regional power outages. Analysts have blamed both US policy and ongoing problems with Cuba’s ageing power grid. But the result has left nearly 10 million Cubans in complete darkness. Residents walk down a street during a national power outage in Havana, Cuba, on March 21 [Ernesto Mastrascusa/EPA] The effects are being felt across daily life. The fuel shortage is disrupting water systems and food distribution across the island. Litter is piling up in Havana because rubbish trucks lack fuel. Hospitals are limiting surgeries. Public transport has been reduced. And many people have resorted to using wood fires to cook and heat water. Reporting from Havana, journalist Ed Augustin told Al Jazeera’s The Take that the crisis is “absolutely eviscerating every part of life”. In Havana, residents face blackouts lasting up to 15 hours a day, while in some rural areas, outages can last far longer, sometimes stretching into more than a full day without electricity. “Cubans are living in unbearable conditions, and that is clearly part of what this policy is designed to do,” Augustin said. A person shines a torch during a power outage in Havana, Cuba, on March 4, 2026 [Ernesto Mastrascusa/EPA] What is the human cost of the fuel shortage? The United Nations has warned of a possible humanitarian “collapse” in Cuba as a result of the fuel shortages. Journalists like Augustin warn that there is a human cost to steep economic sanctions like those the US has imposed on Cuba. “It’s worth pointing out: Sanctions kill,” Augustin said. “There’s a lot of academic literature that show that sanctions kill.” He pointed to a 2025 study in The Lancet Global Health journal, which estimated that 564,000 excess deaths each year were linked to economic sanctions. Augustin added that children are especially vulnerable. “I’ve been going to various Cuban hospitals, and the Cuban doctors are telling me that the infant mortality rate this year is rising,” Augustin said. “And it’s rising because staff can’t get to work, because there are no buses. It’s rising because cleaners can’t get to work, so more children and mothers are getting sepsis. It’s because prenatals [vitamins] and folic acid are not getting to mothers. Milk is not getting to children.” Faced with international criticism, Trump in recent weeks has signalled he may loosen the oil embargo, allowing a Russian vessel to reach Havana. Mexico too has indicated it may resume oil shipments to Cuba. Advertisement How long have Cuba and the US been at odds? Current tensions with Cuba stretch back to the Cold War, when the US took an adversarial stance against left-wing governments throughout the Americas. The Cuban Revolution in the 1950s led to the overthrow of a US-backed, military-led government, and by the early 1960s, the US had placed the island under a comprehensive trade embargo, designed to weaken Havana’s new communist leadership. “No country in modern history, at least since the French Revolution, has been sanctioned as long as Cuba has been sanctioned,” Augustin said. But the pressure has intensified under President Trump, who tightened economic restrictions on Cuba during his first term, from 2017 to 2021. Since returning to office in 2025, Trump has labelled Cuba an “unusual and extraordinary threat” to US security and has threatened a “takeover” of the island. The energy blockade is part of that campaign, Augustin explained. “The US is purposely de-industrialising Cuba,” Augustin said. “By targeting energy, it’s targeting all of the infrastructure on which life depends.” Who holds power in Cuba? Although Miguel Diaz-Canel is Cuba’s president, power in Cuba does not sit with the presidency alone. Cuba is a one-party state, and the most powerful institution in the country is the Communist Party of Cuba, which is defined in its constitution as the “leading force of the state and society”. In practice, this means the party — not the government — sets the country’s political direction. While Diaz-Canel is the secretary-general of Cuba’s Communist Party, analysts say there are signals he might not be the one deciding the country’s future. The US and Cuba are currently in negotiations, and reports have emerged that the Trump administration is pressuring other powerful Cuban leaders to remove Diaz-Canel from power. “Politically, I think what is happening is that we are seeing the real
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