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‘Will not leave’: Is Israel killing the US-Iran MoU by staying in Lebanon?

‘Will not leave’: Is Israel killing the US-Iran MoU by staying in Lebanon?

As he visited troops in southern Lebanon on Tuesday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared that the military “will not leave” the area as long as the Iran-backed armed group Hezbollah remains a “threat” to his nation. A day earlier, Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz also said Israel’s military will not withdraw “a millimetre” until Hezbollah is disarmed. Recommended Stories list of 3 itemsend of list But the Israeli stance is squarely at odds with the first clause of the US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), which provides for an immediate, permanent halt to fighting on “all fronts”, including in Lebanon where Israeli forces have occupied approximately one-fifth of the country since early March. That provision has since been undercut by a separate US-brokered framework agreement between Israel and the Lebanese government, which doesn’t require Israeli forces to leave southern Lebanon or halt attacks – a deal Hezbollah has denounced. The result has been an entrenchment of Israel’s military presence in Lebanon, even as strikes have eased to avoid reigniting direct conflict with Iran. That leaves an open question: Is Israel’s position bluster for a domestic audience, or a hard line that could unravel the fragile MoU? We spoke to analysts to find out. [Al Jazeera] ‘Lose-lose’ for Netanyahu Behind Netanyahu’s combative language is an embattled prime minister managing a difficult balancing act, Cyrus Schayegh, professor of international history and politics at the Geneva Graduate Institute, told Al Jazeera. On the one hand, domestic politics has made Netanyahu reluctant to be seen as backing down from the war with Hezbollah, which began firing rockets into northern Israel soon after the first US-Israeli strikes on Tehran on February 28, in which Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed. Israel responded with force and has launched near-daily strikes, as well as an expanding ground invasion, ever since. Advertisement With elections expected around October, a hasty withdrawal from Lebanon could look like capitulation – and worse, an implicit admission that he only fell into line because of pressure from US President Donald Trump. But the other side of that “lose-lose” is Washington. Netanyahu, Schayegh says, understands exactly what Trump wants from him: to prevent the Israel-Hezbollah front from unravelling the broader US-Iran negotiations. Defying that expectation risks a rupture with the US at a moment when Israel can least afford one. Israeli security personnel remain on alert and scan the sky for an FPV drone in Metula, northern Israel, after Netanyahu ordered strikes on what his office described as Hezbollah targets in Beirut’s southern suburbs, according to a statement from his office [Atef Safadi/EPA] Iran’s ‘deep commitment’ Tehran has explicitly and repeatedly stated that Israel must fully withdraw from all occupied Lebanese territories before it will entertain signing any sort of peace deal with the US. Schayegh said this reflects Iran’s deep commitment to Hezbollah’s survival – the group has proven itself a vital strategic partner over the years, and the ties between Hezbollah’s leadership and the Iranian regime run deeper than pure strategy, reaching into socio-cultural and even family bonds. Hezbollah is a major issue for Iran, particularly the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and it has shown this by its willingness to strike northern Israel and block the Strait of Hormuz over the issue before, geopolitical analyst Joe Macaron told Al Jazeera. But that doesn’t mean Iran expects, or even wants, a full return to the pre-Gaza war status quo, Schayegh says. At least some in Tehran, he believes, understand that getting Israel out of Lebanon won’t mean restoring the arrangement that held before 2023, when the Lebanese army played little to no role in the south, and Hezbollah operated largely unchecked, a dynamic dating back to the 2006 war in which Israel also occupied southern Lebanon. That recognition, Schayegh argues, means the form Hezbollah’s precise posture and footprint in southern Lebanon takes isn’t treated by Tehran as non-negotiable. Instead, it functions as a bargaining chip, one Iran could potentially use incrementally, trading concessions step by step in a slow, deliberate, diplomatic process, he says, adding that although it’s “a delicate path” for Tehran to walk. Diminishing the power of Hezbollah in Lebanon, therefore, it is a path Iran may be prepared to navigate around rather than resist outright. Advertisement Still, Iran holding on to the Lebanon issue “as much as it could” was reportedly a sticking point that delayed the MoU in the first place, according to Ronnie Chatah, a political commentator, writer and host of The Beirut Banyan podcast. He told Al Jazeera it’s conceivable Iran could still make Lebanon “a heightened problem”, slowing a permanent deal with Washington unless there’s added pressure on Israel to at least appear to be withdrawing. Even so, Chatah doesn’t believe the current situation is enough to derail the MoU altogether. In the days since both agreements were signed, he said, there’s been no serious push by Iran to make Lebanon a priority and, despite Israel’s clear insistence it will stay as long as it sees a threat, he does not believe it will “jeopardise” the MoU. Hezbollah’s exclusion: ‘humiliating, shameful and a surrender’ Hezbollah was not involved in the framework agreement between Israeli and Lebanese officials. In fact, it was entirely excluded from the negotiations, which led to a deal being signed in Washington, DC. Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem has adamantly rejected the framework agreement, calling it “humiliating, shameful and a surrender of sovereignty”. As a party which has held seats in the Lebanese parliament since the mid-2000s, Schayegh noted, Hezbollah is not simply a “marionette” of Iran. But since Israel’s 2024 campaign in Lebanon, amid the Gaza war, which has massively weakened the armed group and killed much of its leadership, Iran has organisationally assumed a greater role. For Chatah, the real answers, therefore, lie not in Lebanon but in Iran. As the most important player in its “axis of resistance” across the region, Hezbollah represents Iran’s most “advanced investment” beyond its borders over the past four and a half

Is Ukraine’s campaign of targeting Russian refineries working?

Is Ukraine’s campaign of targeting Russian refineries working?

Long-range Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries have resulted in serious fuel shortages across the country. They compelled Moscow, a major hydrocarbon producer, to begin purchasing fuel abroad. Ukraine has also disrupted Russian supply routes north of the Sea of Azov, causing acute fuel shortages and blackouts in the occupied Crimean peninsula. The attacks have generated spectacular videos of refineries on fire and clickbait headlines claiming that “Russia is losing”. But what they have failed to achieve so far is changing Russian President Vladimir Putin’s calculus. After a long silence, Putin recently admitted that the strikes were indeed painful for Russia. But rather than moderating his conditions for a peace settlement, as Ukraine and its allies hoped he would, he staged a show of defiance and performative confidence. In a statement issued on June 23, he made clear he has not stepped back from his demands. He wants the peace treaty to be based on the framework agreement Ukraine and Russia developed during the Istanbul talks in the spring of 2022, a few months into Russia’s all-out aggression. These included Ukraine’s neutrality and a cap on the size of its military, among other conditions. But there are additional demands that have piled up over the four and a half years of war. This is what Putin refers to as “reality on the ground”, which stands for all the land Russia has occupied so far. Moscow wants to keep it. And on top of that, he is adding another euphemism: “Anchorage modality”, a reference to the frameworks surrounding the inconclusive Alaska summit between Putin and US President Donald Trump in August 2025. What it stands for is the Russian demand presented at the summit – that Ukraine must withdraw from the parts of the Donbas region which it still controls. Advertisement Finally, Putin has ominously extended his territorial demands beyond Donbas to what he calls Novorossiya – a vague geographical term derived from the name of the province that existed in imperial Russia on the territory of today’s southern Ukraine. The vagueness is probably intentional: interpretations may range from the maximalist goal of capturing the port city of Odesa to a modest, but still painful one for Ukraine – demanding that Kyiv withdraw from the unoccupied part of Zaporizhia region, in addition to the Donbas. Putin’s decision to double down on his demands likely rests on the fact that the situation in the country remains relatively stable. For all the dramatic visuals of burning refineries and queues at gasoline stations, most Russians have seen worse in their lifetimes. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s, the country witnessed nationwide political upheaval, which was followed by two wars in Chechnya and multiple bloody terror attacks like the Dubrovka theatre and Beslan school sieges. In terms of economic hardship, the vast majority of Russians are still enjoying a lifestyle comparable with that of poorer European Union countries and contrasting sharply with what they endured throughout the 1990s. Most importantly, their war experience is aeons apart from that of the Ukrainians – who have been exposed to far more brutal Russian aerial strikes, wintering in unheated apartments and dodging violent conscription gangs hunting for men in the streets of Ukrainian towns and villages. Ukraine itself is the best illustration of what a post-Soviet country can endure without challenging the government in mass protests or army mutinies. Russia itself deployed the same tactics of targeting refineries against Ukraine early on in the war. The Ukrainians adapted, so, too, will the Russians. Fuel shortages create pain, but Russian oil and gas production remains intact. It serves as a backbone of the economy, ensuring the country’s ability to wage war while adapting to challenges posed by Ukraine and the Western alliance. As a March paper on the prospects of Russian oil production by the US think tank, the Carnegie Center asserts, Russia’s challenges are “well within the Kremlin’s and the oil industry’s ability to cope with headwinds and adversity” over the next three to five years, which are critical for winning the war. In the months following the paper’s publication, Russia filled up its coffers with billions of extra petrodollars, thanks to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran. It is now in an even better position. Advertisement Ukraine, on the other hand, is entirely dependent on Western aid, which it finds harder and harder to obtain. After losing its main funder, the United States, it is now existentially reliant on European governments – especially the British, French and German – which themselves are coming under strong pressure from the far right to stop financing Ukraine. Last week, Zelenskyy announced a 40-day “influence operation”, meaning more drone strikes, to coerce Russia into agreeing to settle the conflict on conditions more favourable to Ukraine. But Russia is not turning the other cheek. It has embarked on a campaign of its own to knock out petrol stations on the left bank of the Dnipro River to suffocate supplies for the Ukrainian army and civilians. Ukraine and its Western allies may come up with another surprise move that could cause much pain to Russia. But there is a fair chance that Zelenskyy’s 40-day campaign will see mixed results and the big picture may not radically change from the one we are observing today. The most crucial success that Ukraine has failed to achieve yet is stopping the Russian ground offensive. While Western media is trumpeting Moscow’s anticipated defeat, Russian troops are busy finalising the capture of Kostiantynivka, the first in a chain of industrial cities that form the northern Donbas agglomeration, the main prize of the current stage of the war. It is apparent from official and expert Russian commentary that Russia sees the Ukrainian drone campaign primarily as a PR surge aimed at convincing US President Donald Trump to restart support for Ukraine. Like many longtime Ukraine watchers, the Russians also have an acute sense of deja vu – similar PR surges accompanied Ukraine’s

Cape Verde: All to know before FIFA World Cup knockout against Argentina

Cape Verde: All to know before FIFA World Cup knockout against Argentina

An island nation of just over half a million inhabitants, Cape Verde pulled off the unthinkable by reaching the last 32. Published On 1 Jul 20261 Jul 2026 Five wins to go. How can your team reach the final and win the World Cup 2026? Click here to find out. For decades, Cape Verde was known simply for its crystal clear waters and white sandy beaches. Recommended Stories list of 3 itemsend of list But a football fairytale in North America in June has exponentially raised the profile of this tiny island nation across the globe. Cape Verde turned their fans from dreamers to believers, writing a story for the ages when the World Cup debutants became the smallest country to reach the knockout stages of the competition. Come Friday, the archipelago of 10 islands in the Atlantic Ocean will face reigning champions Argentina in a contest likened to a David vs Goliath battle. Here’s all to know about Cape Verde: Where is Cape Verde? Cape Verde is an island nation off the western coast of Africa. How have Cape Verde performed at the 2026 World Cup? Cape Verde pulled off the unthinkable by reaching the World Cup knockouts, finishing second in a tricky group. They registered three points, holding each of the title favourites Spain, former champions Uruguay and Saudi Arabia to a draw. That was enough to send them to the last 32. Cape Verde’s Dailon Livramento celebrates after their final group match as they qualify for the knockout stages of the World Cup [Troy Taormina/Imagn Images via Reuters] Why is Cape Verde’s World Cup run historic? As an nation of just more than half a million inhabitants, expectations were low for Cape Verde on their World Cup debut. But, following a fairytale run in the African qualifiers, the Blue Sharks lived up to their giant-killing reputation, and continue their dream run in North America. Advertisement They are the smallest nation to reach the knockouts in the World Cup’s 96-year history. Cape Verde’s success has been in the planning for a while, with a football talent recruitment strategy built on tapping into its large diaspora community of promising players. Of the starting 11 that were on the field for their 0-0 draw with Saudi Arabia in the final group game, six were born outside the country. Three were born in the Netherlands, and the others were from the Republic of Ireland, France and Portugal. When do Cape Verde play Argentina? Cape Verde face title holders Argentina in the round of 32 on Friday in Miami. The match begins at 5pm (22:00 GMT). Who is Cape Verde’s goalkeeper Vozinha? Cape Verde’s 40-year-old goalkeeper Vozinha has been arguably the hero of their maiden World Cup campaign, keeping two clean sheets in three games. He remarkably made seven saves in their goalless draw with European champions Spain, keeping the talented Lamine Yamal at bay. His impeccable display between the sticks made him an overnight sensation on social media – Vozinha’s Instagram follower count has jumped from a modest 500,000 to 17.4 million, as of Wednesday. That is more than some of the most famous sportspeople in the world, including NFL legend Tom Brady and NBA star Victor Wembanyama. Vozinha of Cape Verde has become a huge fan favourite at the 2026 World Cup [Michael Steele/Getty Images/AFP] Who are Cape Verde’s best players? Apart from Vozinha – whose real name is Josimar Jose Evora Dias – Cape Verde’s centre-back Diney Borges and defensive midfielder Kevin Pina have played a crucial role in their success so far. Pina also scored once, along with Helio Varela. The 2026 World Cup is not Cape Verde’s first major tournament. They have played at four Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON), the continent’s showpiece footballing event. Cape Verde’s best result was reaching the quarterfinals in their inaugural campaign in 2013, as well as at their last appearance in 2023. They also came close to qualifying for the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, but were ultimately eliminated in the last match of the group phase. What is Cape Verde’s FIFA world ranking? Cape Verde is ranked 64th. Why are Cape Verde called the Blue Sharks? Their football team is nicknamed “Tubaroes Azuis” – Portuguese for “Blue Sharks”. It is a moniker for the majestic blue sharks that inhabit Cape Verde’s surrounding Atlantic waters, with the archipelago home to several species of sharks and rays. A supporter of the ‘Blue Sharks’ [Ronaldo Schemidt/AFP] Adblock test (Why?)