Ravaged by civil war, how a national park was restored in Mozambique
Gorongosa, Mozambique – In Gorongosa National Park in central Mozambique, veterinarian Mercia Angela cradles a baby pangolin in her arms. Perhaps aware that it is safe, it reaches out and gently pulls her hair. “Our special unit of rangers who investigate people trying to sell pangolins rescued this one from a trafficker, and now we’re on a journey to rehabilitate it, preparing it for its eventual release back into the wild,” she said about the pangopup. Pangolins are a keystone species, meaning they play a critical role in shaping their habitats and altering ecosystems. But they are also the world’s most trafficked mammal – often hunted for their meat, skin, and even scales, which some Asian countries believe have medicinal properties. According to the World Wildlife Fund, pangolin skin is also in demand in the United States and Mexico for processing into products like boots, belts and bags. Four African variations of the pangolin are listed as vulnerable on the Red List of Threatened Species maintained by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). Some 20 years ago, it’s possible this pangopup – christened Larissa by Angela and her team – would not have survived or been rescued at all, as Gorongosa’s wildlife and infrastructure were ravaged amid the country’s post-independence civil war that pitted the rebel Mozambique National Resistance Movement (Renamo) against government forces. “The fighting was all over the country, but Gorongosa [in Sofala province, central Mozambique] was the epicentre of the war as Renamo established their headquarters here at Casa Banana, near the park boundary,” Gorongosa National Park Warden Pedro Muagura, who represents the Ministry of Environment, told Al Jazeera. “The rebels wanted game meat from the park for food, and they killed elephants for ivory, which they exchanged for weapons from South Africa.” In the early days of the 1977-1992 war, then-white-ruled South Africa and Rhodesia backed the rebels in Mozambique, taking advantage of internal differences to destabilise their neighbour, which was harbouring groups fighting against their racist governments. Government military police patrol the streets of Gorongosa Village in central Mozambique [File: Grant Lee Neuenburg/Reuters] The civil war left some one million people dead, displaced several million more, and ruined the country’s economy. In Gorongosa, the park’s large mammals also suffered during the conflict as both sides slaughtered hundreds of animals for food and trade. Hungry soldiers shot many more thousands of zebras, wildebeest, buffaloes, and other ungulates. They also killed lions and other large predators for sport or trophies. Widespread poaching also contributed to the decimation of the wildlife. Muagura said that while snares and gin traps may have been set by people for food, they were non-selective and killed whatever would have sprung them. Thousands of snares were cleared from all over the park after the war. ‘Fundamentals’ in place After the 1992 peace accord that ended the war, though the government recognised the park’s value, the money to rehabilitate it was unavailable. In 1994, the African Development Bank began a five-year effort to rebuild Gorongosa’s infrastructure and restore its wildlife with help from the European Union and the IUCN. Enter Greg Carr, an American tech entrepreneur turned philanthropist who made his millions starting companies such as Boston Technology, founded in 1986 and modifying voicemail technology to make it less expensive. After he and his business partner sold the company in 1998, Carr got involved in other tech ventures, including co-founding Africaonline, an internet service provider. But after making his millions, Carr was still searching for meaning. In 1998, he launched the Carr Foundation and a year later founded the Carr Center for Human Rights Policy at Harvard University. In 2004, he met then-Mozambican President Joaquim Chissano, a strong advocate for conservation who addressed the Carr Center for Human Rights Policy. Their meeting led to a partnership that would change the fate of Gorongosa National Park, paving the way for its rehabilitation and the return of its wildlife. American philanthropist Greg Carr got involved in a project to restore the park after a meeting with Mozambique’s former president [Courtesy of Gorongosa National Park] Chissano invited Carr to Mozambique. “I spent two years studying Mozambique, asking myself, ‘How can I be helpful?’” Carr, now 65, told Al Jazeera at Gorongosa National Park. As someone who has always been positive about nature’s ability to fix itself with minimum human intervention, he settled on funding the park’s restoration. “The fundamentals of this ecosystem were in place, meaning the rivers were flowing, and the soil was good and the grass was growing. If you stop whatever the disturbance is in a natural area, you have a very good chance that nature will know how to restore itself,” he said. However, protecting the flora and fauna was not the only goal for Carr. “It was essential to me that the project was not simply to manage the national park or restore the wildlife, but to create employment and help the communities that live next to the park and share the ecosystem,” he said. “And that’s in my contract with the government.” Carr acknowledges the post-war recovery efforts, but says they were hamstrung because those involved “didn’t have a lot of money”. His Gorongosa Restoration Project signed a memorandum of understanding with the Mozambican government to restore the park. He committed $36m to the project in 2004. Rewilding Gorongosa Some 20 years after its inception, the project has succeeded in its mission to rewild the park, rehabilitate its infrastructure, revive tourism and improve the lives of communities in the so-called buffer zone, which is conterminous with the park. A 1994 survey, the first since the civil war, counted 100 elephants, 300 reedbuck, 100 waterbuck, and only a handful of zebra and small antelope. A 2022 aerial survey (PDF), shows a significant rebound in the numbers of most species. Some of the populations have grown because of the protection of the park. At the same time, some, including buffalo, wildebeest, hippos, wild dogs and jackals, have been reintroduced into
How Israel destroyed Gaza’s ability to feed itself
At the start of summer, Gaza’s fields are usually bursting with ripening crops and fruits of all colours, scents and sizes. But, nearly nine months into Israel’s war on Gaza, abundant harvests have given way to devastation and a dire humanitarian crisis. A UN report says 96 percent of Gaza’s population is food insecure and one in five Palestinians, or about 495,000 people, is facing starvation. Satellite images analysed by Al Jazeera’s digital investigation team, Sanad show that more than half (60 percent) of Gaza’s farmland, crucial for feeding the war-ravaged territory’s hungry population, has been damaged or destroyed by Israeli attacks. Israel has killed at least 37,900 people and injured 87,000 others in bombings, by destroying healthcare that could have saved them, and by starvation. North to south, nowhere and nobody has been spared. North Gaza In Beit Lahiya, once known for plump, juicy strawberries that locals fondly called “red gold”, Israeli bulldozers and heavy machinery have systematically razed fields, reducing them to dirt. Before the war, Gaza’s strawberry industry employed thousands of people. Seeding and planting began in September, with harvesting from December through March. A Palestinian farmer carries a box of strawberries on a farm in north Gaza [File: Getty Images] Before and after satellite images show vehicle tracks over the once-fertile regions of Beit Lahiya. Defying Israel’s ongoing attacks, farmers like Youssef Abu Rabieh figured out ways to grow food between bombed-out buildings – makeshift gardens of repurposed containers. Palestinian farmer Youssef Abu Rabieh launched his agricultural initiative despite ongoing Israeli attacks in Beit Lahiya, on April 28, 2024 [Mahmoud Issa/Anadolu via Getty Images] Gaza City Thriving garden patches and back-yard fruit trees once dotted Gaza City, home to about a third (750,000) of Gaza’s 2.3 million population before the war. South of Gaza City is Zeitoun, a neighbourhood named after the Arabic word for olive. Before and after satellite images show southern Zeitoun where nearly every last bit of greenery has been wiped out. The olive tree is deeply beloved in Palestine, symbolic of Palestinian resilience against Israeli occupation. During one short pause in fighting from November 22 to December 1, Palestinian farmers ran to harvest their olives and extract oil, because they do not know any other way to live, and because they needed the harvest. Olive cultivation is crucial in the Palestinian economy and is used for everything from oil to table olives to soap. Palestinian farmers work to press the olive crop for oil during the one-week pause in Gaza City, November 27, 2023 [Doaa Albaz/Anadolu via Getty Images] Deir el-Balah Its very name meaning “House of Dates”, the central governorate of Deir el-Balah is one of Gaza’s largest agricultural producers, known for its oranges, olives and – of course – dates. The date harvest typically begins in late September and continues through the end of October. Palestinian farm workers collect dates in Deir el-Balah, Gaza, September 30, 2021 [AP Photo/Adel Hana] The satellite images below show the widespread destruction of farms, roads and homes in eastern Maghazi in the centre of Deir el-Balah. Khan Younis Khan Younis in the south used to produce the bulk of Gaza’s citrus, including oranges and grapefruits. With its fertile soil and long hours of Mediterranean sunshine, it has the ideal climate as well as lots of space, being Gaza’s largest governorate – about 30 percent of the Strip’s 365sq km (141 sq miles). Farmers pick citrus fruits in Khan Younis on November 7, 2022 [Majdi Fathi/NurPhoto via Getty Images] The satellite images below show how Israeli forces have decimated Khan Younis’s orchards and farmlands. Rafah Rafah is Gaza’s southernmost district, with a pre-war population of about 275,000 people. Rafah is also the name of the crossing with Egypt which used to be a vital link between Gaza and the rest of the world before it was destroyed by Israel in May. In the southeast of Rafah is the Karem Abu Salem (Kerem Shalom) crossing where goods grown or produced in Gaza were shipped out of the territory. Before and after satellite imagery shows how Israeli forces have flattened vital fields in eastern Rafah Adblock test (Why?)
Hurricane Beryl strengthens into ‘potentially catastrophic’ storm
Beryl, the earliest Category 4 storm ever reported, is moving towards Jamaica after hitting the island of Carriacou in Grenada. Hurricane Beryl has intensified into a “potentially catastrophic” Category 5 storm, the United States’s National Hurricane Center (NHC) said, as it headed towards Jamaica after bringing down power lines, damaging houses and flooding streets on other southeastern Caribbean islands. Beryl, the earliest Category 4 storm ever reported, made landfall earlier on Monday on the island of Carriacou in Grenada. “Beryl is now a potentially catastrophic Category 5 hurricane,” the NHS said in a bulletin at 11.00pm (03:00 GMT). “Fluctuations in strength are likely… but Beryl is expected to still be near major hurricane intensity” as it moves across the Caribbean. Carriacou took a direct hit early in the day from the storm’s “extremely dangerous eyewall,” with sustained winds at upwards of 240km per hour (150 mph), the NHC said. Nearby islands, including Grenada and St Vincent and the Grenadines, also experienced “catastrophic winds and life-threatening storm surge”, the hurricane centre said. “In half an hour, Carriacou was flattened,” Grenada’s Prime Minister Dickon Mitchell told a news conference. He said one person had died, but authorities had not yet been able to assess the situation on the islands of Carriacou and Petite Martinique, where communications had been largely cut off. “We do hope there aren’t any other fatalities or any injuries,” he said. “But bear in mind the challenge we have in Carriacou and Petite Martinique.” Mitchell added that the government will send people early on Tuesday to evaluate the situation on the islands. The storm brought seawater surges that inundated some coastal communities in Barbados [Chandan Khanna/AFP] Streets from St Lucia island south to Grenada were strewn with shoes, trees, downed power lines and other debris. Some banana trees were snapped in half by the force of the wind. “Right now, I’m real heartbroken,” said Vichelle Clark King as she surveyed her sand and water-filled shop in the Barbadian capital of Bridgetown. The storm is expected to pass near Jamaica on Wednesday, the Miami-based hurricane centre said. Jamaica’s government issued a hurricane warning for the country, while tropical storm warnings were in effect for parts of the southern coasts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti. Climate change effect The last strong hurricane to hit the southeast Caribbean was Hurricane Ivan 20 years ago, which killed dozens of people in Grenada. Beryl became the first hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic season on Saturday and quickly strengthened to Category 4. Experts say that such a powerful storm forming this early in the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from early June to late November, is extremely rare and that climate change probably contributed to its rapid formation. Global warming has helped push temperatures in the North Atlantic to all-time highs, causing more surface water to evaporate, which in turn provides additional fuel for more intense hurricanes with higher wind speeds. “Climate change is loading the dice for more intense hurricanes to form,” said Christopher Rozoff, an atmospheric scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in the US state of Colorado. Andra Garner, a New Jersey-based meteorologist, noted that Beryl jumped from a Category 1 to a Category 4 storm in less than 10 hours. Her research has shown that as water temperatures have risen over the last five decades, it has become more than twice as likely for storms to jump from weak storms to major hurricanes in less than 24 hours. In May, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic this year, also pointing to unseasonably high ocean temperatures. At the Chillin’ restaurant in Kingston, waiter Welton Anderson said he felt calm despite the hurricane’s approach. “Jamaicans wait until the last minute. The night before or in the morning, the panic sets in. It’s because we’re used to this,” he said. Across other islands in the eastern Caribbean, residents had boarded up windows, stocked up on food and filled their cars with fuel as the storm drew closer. Officials in Mexico also began to prepare for Beryl’s arrival later this week, with the federal government issuing a statement urging authorities and the population to exercise “extreme caution”. Adblock test (Why?)
Will Pakistan ever be able to eradicate polio?
Health workers have begun a campaign to vaccinate 9.5 million children against polio in 41 districts in Pakistan this week. This latest round of a national vaccination drive will include Islamabad and focus particularly on areas where polio-positive sewage samples have been found. The anti-polio drive will be launched in 16 districts of Balochistan, 11 districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, eight districts of Sindh, and five districts of Punjab, according to local media. Despite major efforts to eradicate the disease in Pakistan, six cases of the highly infectious virus have already been reported this year. Further hampering the drive, vaccination teams and medical professionals have faced harassment and even physical attacks in some parts of Pakistan. Pakistan’s PM Shehbaz Sharif, however, said the government “remains steadfast” in its aim to eradicate polio after a meeting with American billionaire philanthropist Bill Gates in Islamabad last week. How serious a problem is polio in Pakistan? Pakistan is one of only two countries in the world where polio is still endemic, the other being neighbouring Afghanistan, according to the World Health Organization (WHO). The highly contagious viral disease largely affects children under the age of five. Children infected by poliovirus can suffer paralysis and in some cases death. The South Asian nation launched a vaccination programme as part of its Polio Eradication Programme in 1994. Officials say the country used to report more than 20,000 cases annually. Despite administering more than 300 million doses of the oral vaccine annually and spending billions of dollars, the disease is still rife across Pakistan. This year, four vaccination campaigns targeting more than 43 million children have already been undertaken as authorities claim they are in the “last mile” of their fight against polio in the country of 235 million people. How many cases have been reported in Pakistan? Since 2015, Pakistan has reported 357 polio cases, including six this year. One of the victims, a two-year-old boy, died in May. Officials said all of this year’s cases belong to the YB3A cluster, which they said originated in Afghanistan, where four cases have been reported this year. In addition to human cases, wild poliovirus type 1 (WPV1) has frequently been detected in environmental samples taken across the country. This year, WPV1 has been found in 45 of Pakistan’s 166 districts. How does Pakistan run its polio immunisation campaigns? Nationwide immunisation campaigns involving more than 350,000 health workers are run in phases with vaccine desks set up at health centres and health workers going door to door. The campaigns are organised by the government-run National Emergencies Operation Center (NEOC), which has been tasked with running Pakistan’s Polio Eradication Programme. Field workers go door to door over the course of a specified number of days, vaccinating children under the age of five. Vaccines are also administered at land and air borders, including to adults, and on motorways connecting major cities across the country. What are the issues facing the polio campaign? Resistance to the polio immunisation drive grew in Pakistan after the CIA, a United States spy agency, organised a fake hepatitis vaccination drive to track al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden, who was killed in 2011 in Pakistan by US special forces. Misinformation linked to religious beliefs has also been spread, claiming that the vaccine contains traces of pork and alcohol, which are forbidden in Islam. Disinformation, agenda-driven campaigns, myths, community boycotts and mistrust in the government have also been factors behind refusals. But officials said government campaigns are helping change bad perceptions. Health authorities in Pakistan have listed seven districts where polio is “endemic”. All seven are in the northwest, in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa province. Officials said the security situation has been the biggest obstacle in reaching the target population in the province bordering Afghanistan. In addition to the security situation, health officials say a target population that moves from one place to another, which may be carrying the YB3A variant, has proven to be a challenge. Why have health workers and security officials been targeted? Health workers and security officials accompanying them have been harassed, ridiculed, taunted, threatened and even targeted physically. At least 102 polio field workers, officials and security personnel have been killed, including at least six in campaigns carried out this year. In recent years, the Pakistan Taliban has killed dozens of health workers and members of the security forces involved in polio campaigns. But officials believe the reason for the violence is not the polio programme alone. “Over the last few years, it is not the polio programme that is targeted, but unfortunately, the targets are the security personnel guarding the teams because, given the security situation in some parts of the country, they become soft targets when they are in the community,” Dr Hamid Jafari, the WHO’s director of polio eradication, told Al Jazeera. What other issues affect the health workers? Low pay, salary delays, lack of assistance and compassion, and tough working conditions are some of the other issues facing the field workers. Some health workers told Al Jazeera they get paid as little as 1,360 rupees per day (about $5) for at least eight hours of work. Catch-up days when they go out in the field after the end of the campaign to vaccinate children who were missed are not paid, they said. In addition, some polio survivors now working on the campaign do not receive help with transport or health benefits despite their conditions, leaving them to walk in poor weather and tough terrain to carry out their work. Some staff lamented the lack of pay parity, saying people working with international organisations involved in the campaign are paid much more. What is the outlook for the polio eradication campaign? Dr Shahzad Baig, who was the NEOC chief until May, told Al Jazeera that the aim was to make Pakistan polio-free by 2026. “That is our target at the moment,” he said before he was replaced. However, after a Technical Advisory Group meeting organised by the WHO that took place in
How does Israel treat thousands of Palestinians in its prisons?
Accusations of widespread abuses and torture. Palestinian detainees released from Israeli prisons say abuse and torture are widespread and systematic. Thousands, including minors, have been held since the war on Gaza began in October. So, how does Israel treat its Palestinian prisoners? Presenter: Mohammed Jamjoom Guests: Fadia Barghouti – Detained by the Israeli military for 90 days under its so-called administrative detention programme Basil Farraj – Assistant professor at Birzeit University, specialising in the study of political prisoners and violence in prisons in Palestine and elsewhere Mustafa Barghouti – Secretary-general and founder of the Palestinian National Initiative Adblock test (Why?)
US Supreme Court rules partial immunity for Donald Trump
NewsFeed In a historic 6-3 decision the US Supreme Court has ruled that Donald Trump cannot be prosecuted for certain official actions taken as president but can for private acts. The decision is being sent back to a lower court and likely will delay any trial Trump may face on charges of trying to subvert the 2020 election until after the 2024 election in November. Published On 1 Jul 20241 Jul 2024 Adblock test (Why?)
France detains top film directors over sex abuse allegations
French authorities have detained two leading arthouse film directors, Benoit Jacquot and Jacques Doillon, over accusations of sexual abuse, as a renewed #MeToo reckoning rocks France’s film industry. Jacquot, 77, and Doillon, 80, arrived at a Paris police station on Monday morning, accompanied by their lawyers, according to the AFP news agency. The directors’ detention over alleged abuses, some dating back to the 1980s and all of which they deny, came as activists say French cinema has too long provided cover for abuse. Earlier this year, Judith Godreche, a 52-year-old actor and director, formally accused Jacquot of rape and Doillon of sexual assault when she was a minor, accusations the two men deny. Godreche has described Jacquot as having had an unhealthy “hold” over her during a relationship of “perversion” with him that started when she was 14, from 1986 to 1992. She has also accused Doillon of “putting his fingers down” her “panties” during a screen test for one of his films when she was 15 and still with Jacquot. Several other actors have also filed complaints against both the men. French film director Jacques Doillon, left, arrives at the Directorate of Criminal Investigation for questioning over accusations of sexual abuse, in Paris [Guillaume Daudin/AFP] Isild Le Besco, 41, has alleged Jacquot raped her between 1998 and 2007 during a relationship that started when she was 16 and he was 52. Julia Roy, a 34-year-old actor who has appeared in several of his films, has accused him of sexual assault in “a context of violence and moral constraint which lasted several years”, a source close to the case said. Le Besco has also claimed that Doillon made advances during work sessions, while actor Anna Mouglalis alleged the filmmaker forcefully kissed her in 2011. ‘I am crying’ Judicial sources say the two filmmakers could be held until Tuesday evening and potentially be questioned in the presence of their accusers. The directors’ lawyers have said that there was no need to detain them to interrogate them, and that they should be considered innocent until proven guilty. Jacquot’s lawyer, Julia Minkowski, said her client would “finally be able to express himself before the law”, denouncing what she called the “unacceptable excesses” of media coverage on the issue. Doillon’s lawyer, Marie Dose, has said no legal criteria could justify his being detained for questioning “36 years” after the incident alleged by Godreche, and he could have answered queries without being held in custody. The prosecutor’s office confirmed the two men’s detention, but added that both were presumed innocent for the time being. Godreche on Instagram said she was deeply moved. “I am crying,” she wrote. “I don’t know if I have the strength, but I will have it. I will have it… For her,” she wrote, posting a picture of her teenage self next to Jacquot, 25 years her senior. Since breaking her silence, Godreche has become a leading voice in France’s #MeToo movement. After she appealed for a cinema oversight body, French lawmakers in May voted to create a commission to investigate sexual and gender-based violence in the film industry and other cultural sectors. Last week, the head of France’s top cinema institution, Dominique Boutonnat, stepped down from his position after he was convicted of sexually assaulting his godson in 2020. Boutonnat has been given a three-year prison sentence, two of them suspended. He will, however, be able to serve his one-year jail term at home wearing an electronic bracelet. Cinema legend Gerard Depardieu, 75, is also set to stand trial in October for sexually assaulting two women. He risks a second trial after he was charged in 2020 with the rape of an actor in 2018 when she was 22. [embedded content] Adblock test (Why?)
South Africa’s Ramaphosa names new cabinet as deadlock broken
National unity government formed following weeks of deadlock. South Africa’s president has announced the formation of a new cabinet over a month after elections stripped his African National Congress (ANC) party of its majority. President Cyril Ramaphosa named 32 ministerial positions of the government of national unity late on Sunday, following weeks of deadlock that delayed the formation of an historic governing coalition. The announcement sees 20 of the 32 posts going to the ANC. Another six will be filled by the Democratic Alliance (DA) party, with the remainder split among a crowd of smaller coalition parties. Ramasopha was forced into the unprecedented power-sharing arrangement with DA and others after his party, a dominant force in South African politics since the end of the apartheid era, lost its parliamentary majority for the first time since 1994 in elections on May 29. Accustomed to comfortable victories of more than 60 percent, the ANC won just 40 percent of the vote in the May 29 election, as South Africans turned away from the party amid frustration over poverty, poor services, and some of the world’s highest rates of inequality and unemployment. The rival DA took the second-largest share with 21 percent. Ramaphosa said Sunday that those issues would be priorities for the new government. “We have shown that there are no problems that are too difficult or too intractable that they cannot be solved through dialogue,” said Ramaphosa. ‘Major shake-up’ It took more than a month of complex political manoeuvring, and concessions from the ANC, to piece together the government. In a nod to the DA, its leader John Steenhuisen was appointed minister of agriculture. At the same time, Ramaphosa maintained the ANC’s hold on the ministry of trade and industry, a key portfolio that the DA was also seeking. The ANC’s Paul Mashatile will also continue as deputy president. Steenhuisen, in a statement following the announcement, said: “We look forward to being part of a new era in South Africa’s democratic journey, and to bringing real and tangible change to the millions of citizens who voted for it.” Leader of South Africa’s main opposition Democratic Alliance (DA) party John Steenhuisen (C) reacts before casting his ballot, in Durban North, Durban, on May 29, [Gianluigi Guercia/AFP] Melanie Verwoerd, political analyst and former South African diplomat, told the Reuters news agency that the overhaul would help open up the political scene to new leaders and encourage compromise. “It is a major shake-up with very few of the old faces still in there, which is a good thing,” said Verwoerd. “I think in general it’s a very positive step and of course very positive that they could actually get this done.” What’s next? Whether the current loose coalition of former enemies can improve on the ANC’s record may depend on the extent to which they can put aside their ideological differences. The DA wants to scrap some of the ANC’s black empowerment programmes, saying that they have mostly made a politically connected business elite fabulously wealthy, and scrap the minimum wage. It also opposes the ANC’s desire to expropriate land – most of which is in white hands as a legacy of conquest by colonists and subsequent entrenched white minority rule – without compensation and give it to black farmers. Adblock test (Why?)
Ultra-Orthodox Jews clash with Israeli police over military conscription
NewsFeed Israeli police have cracked down on thousands of ultra-Orthodox men protesting against compulsory military service which they say goes against Jewish law. Israel’s High Court ruled last week that they are not exempt from conscription. Published On 1 Jul 20241 Jul 2024 Adblock test (Why?)
Will Iran’s foreign policy change under a new president?
The two remaining candidates vying for the Iranian presidency, Saeed Jalili and Masoud Pezeshkian, offer voters distinct visions for the country’s future. However, experts say their differing views are unlikely to lead to a significant change in Iran’s foreign policy. Pezeskhian, a former health minister and surgeon, came first in Friday’s election but did not secure the 50 percent needed for an outright victory, forcing him into a run-off against second-placed Jalili to be held on July 5. Friday’s snap election was to pick a successor to President Ebrahim Raisi, who died in a helicopter crash in late May. Pezeshkian stands out in the race as the only non-conservative candidate allowed to run. He had the backing of reformists like former Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, whose involvement likely indicates Pezeshkian will pursue a key reformist foreign policy goal: renegotiating a nuclear deal to alleviate sanctions on Iran’s economy and ease tensions with the West. The 2015 agreement between Iran and China, the European Union, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom, United States, to curb its nuclear programme in exchange for sanctions relief, was signed under the centrist presidency of Hassan Rouhani. [embedded content] But three years later, then-US President Donald Trump withdrew from the deal, crushing the hopes of those who believed it would have paved the way for Iran’s economic renaissance. Instead, the US imposed harsh new sanctions, and Iranian hardliners found new ground to say the West could not be trusted. Talks over the deal’s revival have since largely stalled. On the other side of the political spectrum, Jalili is considered the most rigid representative of conservative politics. A victory for this staunch hardliner – with the backing of other conservative first-round candidates – would mark an even more confrontational approach towards the West, especially the US, analysts say. Having served as the chief nuclear negotiator between 2007-2012, Jalili opposed the idea that Iran should discuss or compromise with other countries about its uranium enrichment programme – a stance he kept for the 2015 deal. Not the only decision-maker Regardless of the candidates’ markedly different stances, Iran’s president operates within a limited mandate. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) under him hold most of the say when it comes to foreign policy. “If you get 180-degree change between a Trump or a [current US President Joe] Biden administration on the general trajectory of the US, in Iran, with a change of presidency, you get a 45 percent difference – it’s not insignificant but not as impactful as in other countries,” said Ali Vaez, chief of International Crisis Group’s Iran programme. “There are elements of continuity that limit how much change one can see.” This has been floated as one of the reasons behind the 40 per cent turnout in Friday’s election – the lowest in Iran’s history since the 1979 Islamic Revolution – as voters appear to have lost hope that much can improve with a change of president. A reformist president would have to face the ultra-conservative forces dominating Iran’s parliament, while his ability to engage with the West would be tested by the country’s regional engagement, which has pitted it against allies of the West. In April, Iran launched a missile and drone attack against Israel in retaliation for an Israeli assault on the Iranian consular building in Damascus, Syria, which killed senior IRGC commanders. The unprecedented tit-for-tat came amid heightened regional tensions as Israel’s war on Gaza drags on and the potential of an all-out war between Israel and the Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon looms larger. But while regional policies have long been strictly handled by the IRGC, nuclear negotiations with world powers are still on the table. On this matter, the president can set the tone and attitude, even if it is only for marginal changes, said Vali Nasr, a professor of Middle East studies at Johns Hopkins University. “When it comes to the nuclear deal, the president can be very important in exploring possibilities for different kinds of outcomes,” Nasr said. “Pezeshkian would make a case to start talks with the US while Jalili would not.” Nuclear diplomacy is central to Iranians as it directly affects the country’s economy – the top concern of most Iranians. Successive governments have failed to tackle currency depreciation and inflation, which they have blamed on the Western sanctions regime. “For sanctions to be lifted, one needs to be interested in talking with the West – whether you have… an intransigent president, it does make a difference,” Nasr said. Iranian women on the day of an election to choose a successor to Ebrahim Raisi following his death in a helicopter crash, in Tehran on June 28, 2024 [Majid Asgaripour/WANA via Reuters] The hardline approach A Jalili presidency would be in line with the late Raisi’s approach, who promised in his three-year tenure not to link the economy to nuclear talks with foreign powers. Instead, the government decided to rely on Iran’s internal capabilities, while pivoting its business towards the East, strengthening ties with China, Russia and neighbouring countries. Under the so-called “resistance economy”, Iran last year signed a China-brokered deal with Saudi Arabia ending a years-long cold war between the regional rivals. Raisi also pushed for Iran to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the country became a member of the BRICS bloc earlier this year. But the so-called turn to the East did not produce tangible results in terms of improving the economy – something the conservative camp has acknowledged – leaving any future president in need of striking a balance when it comes to direction. “Jalili won’t be able to completely avoid talks with the West, as Pezeshkian won’t focus just on nuclear talks,” said Hamid Reza Gholamzadeh, the director of DiploHouse, a think tank focused on foreign policy. He added that Iran’s foreign policy will also depend on external factors – most importantly, the US election in November. “The challenge is not from inside Iran but from